Full Frame the Future?

[marktester]

Hello,
I'm doing a little study to understand if what we saw in 2012 i.e. price of the Full Frame Cameras falling and increase in the number of Full Frame offerings is just a Flash in the pan or the start of a transformation. Would be interested in understanding if you all really aspire to shoot FF. I've put together a survey, and would be grateful for your participation...

http://www.surveymonkey.com/s/R8XRHQX

Would be happy to share my findings here if any...
Best regards,
MT

[PeterP]

Head of Canon thinks so.
http://www.dpreview.com/articles/033...s-masaya-maeda

[TCav]

Head of Canon wants to sell big, expensive cameras. What would you expect him to think?

[JohnG]

Originally Posted by TCav

Head of Canon wants to sell big, expensive cameras. What would you expect him to think?

Where Canon and Nikon go the market goes. The flagships certainly aren't going to go back to APS-C and APS-H sensors. And the 5dIII, D800 and D600 seem to be very successful.

The APS-C was a financial/technological stop-gap. As the guy from Canon indicated - it still has it's place. You're seeing Nikon and Canon (if the rumored 7dII comes into being) continue to release aps-c cameras. But, with the upper-tier buyers responding well to the push for full frame there's no real reason why Canon and Nikon will change course.

So, I think it's accurate to say the future of Semi-pro and pro is full frame. Entry level will probably still stay aps-c or smaller for quite some time I think. What happens there long-term depends on how the mirrorless market goes and where the technology evolves there.

[PeterP]

When the aps-c 6mp 10D first hit the market it came with a list price of US: $1,999
The FF 6D has a current price of $2099.

The 6d is neither a big nor expensive camera body, and it will get less expensive as it ages.
So will its successors as the FF sensor makes its way into the prosumer level cameras.

[TCav]

Guess what! When 'Full Frame' dSLRs cost $1,000, APS-C dSLRs will cost $300! ... and they'll still have about the same capabilities.

There are only a handful of reasons to spend more money for a bigger, heavier camera, and that's not going to change.

[TCav]

Originally Posted by marktester

http://www.surveymonkey.com/s/R8XRHQX

If I answer #7 with "I'm not interested at all", why do I still have to answer #8 and #9?

[JohnG]

Originally Posted by TCav

Guess what! When 'Full Frame' dSLRs cost $1,000, APS-C dSLRs will cost $300! ... and they'll still have about the same capabilities.

There are only a handful of reasons to spend more money for a bigger, heavier camera, and that's not going to change.

TCAV - what you're forgetting is any concept of business. Canon and Nikon, as businesses, want to keep price points up. They won't keep offering lower and lower priced equipment - they'll keep adding features to keep costs up. Very much like car manufacturers do. Again, whether you like it or not is irrelevant. Canon and Nikon will nudge the market in the direction they want and so far the market is happy to respond. Offering a $300 pro-sumer DSLR makes zero business sense. Right now, Canon and Nikon are the only profitable DSLR manufacturers - Sony, Pentax and Oly are all in the red. This is about business decisions. And selling cheaper products is a poor business decision. It's much better to keep the price points up.

[TCav]

Originally Posted by JohnG

TCAV - what you're forgetting is any concept of business. Canon and Nikon, as businesses, want to keep price points up. They won't keep offering lower and lower priced equipment - they'll keep adding features to keep costs up. Very much like car manufacturers do. Again, whether you like it or not is irrelevant. Canon and Nikon will nudge the market in the direction they want and so far the market is happy to respond. Offering a $300 pro-sumer DSLR makes zero business sense. Right now, Canon and Nikon are the only profitable DSLR manufacturers - Sony, Pentax and Oly are all in the red. This is about business decisions. And selling cheaper products is a poor business decision. It's much better to keep the price points up.

I do not believe that anyone will ever offer a 'Full Frame' dSLR for $1,000. My point is that anything that benefits 'Full Frame' dSLRs, benefits 'APS-C' dSLRs at least as much. Nobody that sells dSLRs is going to abandon the 'APS-C' market in favor of the 'Full Frame' market because APS-C is where all the market activity is. 'APS-C' dSLRs outsell 'Full Frame' dSLRs, just like economy cars outsell luxury and performance cars. If you need a Semi- you get a Semi-; if you can get by with a pickup, you get a pickup. More people can get by with pickups than need Semi's.

Whatever the head of Canon thinks is going to happen, he's still going to sell 5 APS-C dSLRs to every 'Full Frame' dSLR. Do you really think he's going to walk away from his most profitable market segment?

[TCav]

BTW, Pentax and Olympus have their own problems, but Sony's Digital Imaging Division is carrying the rest of the company. Sony would stop making TVs and PS3s before they stopped making cameras.