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Old Aug 7, 2013, 6:27 PM   #21
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YTD analysis has nothing to do with whether shipments/sales are seasonal or not. If a product is seasonal in nature, it will have a seasonal selling period defined and that's how you do analysis. YTD analysis is about business analysis. I say this from having worked in data warehousing for a company that sells both seasonal products and any-time products. The key to YTD analysis is that it does not use short intervals which are often skewed. The longer the period the better you eliminate random skews to the figures. non-seasonal product benefits much more from YTD analysis than seasonal product does for that reason.
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Old Aug 8, 2013, 1:38 PM   #22
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Wow... I went away on a business trip for a few days. I'm impressed at all the discussion the post has generated.

The sales figures themselves are from CIPA, so I presume they are correct. It's pretty simple, methinks. We've reached a point of diminishing returns with camera improvements and 16mp really is a kind of sweet spot. So those who are pretty serious about photography - whether pro or hobbyist - have less reason to upgrade. There are exceptions, of course.

For the masses, smart phones - which themselves have reached a sweet spot in terms of price, availability and picture-taking ability - offer the convenience that really is the most important thing for them. These people were Instamatic and Poloroid camera buyers in the 1960s and 1970s. These people have always been looking only for decent images of family and friends, and a convenient way to share them.

Add to this the economic situation. True, the U.S. is technically in a growth cycle, even if a weak one. But I can only use myself as an example. I weathered the financial crisis and recession fairly well. But it is in this year - 2013 - that I find my flat salary and rising expenses have caught up with me. I have far less money to blow now than I have had in quite a while. so camera purchases go on the back burner, especially since I have a nice kit already.

Perhaps now we'll go back to something closer to the more-sane world of photography prior to the digital age. But, with a camera market that's shrinking as fast and as much as it is, some players are likely to get out of the market.
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Old Aug 8, 2013, 2:03 PM   #23
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Excellent summary Biro. My thinking falls in line with yours.
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Old Aug 12, 2013, 10:17 PM   #24
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And then you have THIS.

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