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Old Aug 5, 2013, 11:14 PM   #1
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Some interesting and thought-provoking reading from Kirk Tuck's Visual Science Lab...

http://visualsciencelab.blogspot.com...hy-camera.html
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Old Aug 6, 2013, 5:13 AM   #2
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Thought provoking! And I was wondering if I was being lazy.
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Old Aug 6, 2013, 8:33 AM   #3
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I don't know what data he's looking at, but this is the data I'm looking at:



This data tells me that the shipments of P&S cameras are falling, but that shipments of dSLRs is steady, and that shipments of Mirrorless cameras is only falling slightly.
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Old Aug 6, 2013, 9:01 AM   #4
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Good article, with some interesting comments. The trendy types can now go out and spend their excess cash on electric cars. I should be able to find some real bargains on barely used or closeout camera gear. Camera development will fall off and level out to where there will be a lot less of the 'my camera's better than your camera', and more of the 'i can take photos in more exotic places than you', creating a boon for the travel industry.

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Old Aug 6, 2013, 10:05 AM   #5
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TCAV - CIPA released this data on Aug 1:
CIPA Global numbersProduction Prodution
vs 2012 Shipments Shipments
vs 2012 Total cameras 29.6 million - 45% 29.7 million - 43% Built-in Lens
22.4 million - 49% 22.2 million - 48% Interchangeable Lens 7.2 million - 24% 7.6 million - 18% - DSLR 6 million - 23% 6.3 million - 18% - Mirrorless 1.2 million - 29% 1.3 million - 18%

Where is the chart you posted coming from?
I see formatting stinks on my part. Just look here:
http://www.dpreview.com/news/2013/08...IPA?comments=2
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Old Aug 6, 2013, 11:57 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnG View Post
Where is the chart you posted coming from?
From CIPA. I took the unit shipments of every month from Jan '12 (when CIPA first split mirrorless from reflex) to Jun '13 (the latest available), and charted it.

When I look at the 2012 vs. 2013 data, I see that, from January to June, shhipments of all cameras was down 16%, 50%, 53%, 38%, 40%, and 49%, respectively. For Reflex cameras, during the same period, shipments were up 6% in January, but down 31%, 33%, 3%, 6%, and 29% in the months thereafter. For Mirrorless cameras shipments were up 11% in January, but down 34%, 25%, 10%, 21%, and 10%.

What CIPA is talking about is that the YTD shipments are lower this year than last. That doesn't exactly tell the whole story. The month of March is typically a peak, but in 2013, the peak didn't come until April, so YTD figures aren't as applicable as in prior years.

What I find reassuring, even in CIPA's announcement is that while shipments are down 43%, sales are only down 31%. While people are buying fewer cameras, the ones they are buying have a higher price. (Of course, the sale of a few $2,800 Cyber-shots could skew that a little.)
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Old Aug 6, 2013, 12:13 PM   #7
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Tcav, the data in the article I posted references Jan - June. So, that is inclusive of March and April. So the notion that the conclusion in the article that shipments dropped by 18% for DSLR and 18% for mirrorless in Jan-Jun timeframe is still valid. So, your statement that "but that shipments of dSLRs is steady, and that shipments of Mirrorless cameras is only falling slightly" is not supported by the data. For year-over-year comparison for first 6 months of calendar year there is an 18% drop off in shipments for both.

Here are the CIPA JAN-JUN total numbers for 2013. These numbers match what DPR has on their article showing an 18% drop for same 6 months in previous year:
http://www.cipa.jp/english/data/pdf/d-201306_e.pdf

Now, are you saying the Jan-jun 2012 figures DPR used are inaccurate? I don't see a source for those figures. But if they're accurate, than an 18% drop-off is not the same as "holding steady"
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Old Aug 6, 2013, 3:34 PM   #8
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You would compare Jan '12 to Jan '13, Feb '12 to Feb '13, etc, because you presume that there was something about one month (independent of the year) that would influence what you're measuring, that wouldn't necessarily affect another month. This is called "seasonally adjusted", and works well for most economic indicators, like unemployment and new home starts. For instance, in the US, you might expect camera sales to be greater than average in November because of the sales on Black Friday (The day after our Thanksgiving Day, traditionally the beginning of our Christmas Shopping Season.) But this phenomenon is unique to the US, and so shouldn't affect worldwide sales figures.

On the other hand, another reason people might buy a new camera is in preparation for Summer Vacations, and since most countries, especially most affluent countries are in the Northern Hemisphere where Summers are in the middle of the calendar year, that would seem to be a valid reason to compare seasonally adjusted, worldwide sales figures for the Spring months.

But neither of those would explain the seeming surge of sales in the Autumn. So seasonally adjusted values for camera shipments and sales would seem to throw a monkey wrench into their presumption.

They're trying to draw conclusions that the data doesn't support. Yes, sales are down, but the validity of the figures they're giving is doubtful.
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Old Aug 6, 2013, 3:37 PM   #9
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I read through the article. It is interesting . . . but my gut feeling is that this really talks about the status quo or what is or what the general consensus is . . . not so much of what it can be.

Sure . . . the high iso performance on cameras is getting really good. (esp for full frame), but what if we could get really good iso performance on a APS-C or point-and-shoot for that matter where you could just grab the camera and get a birthday shot of your kid blowing out the candles with nothing but the light coming from the candle(s) on the cake. And not have to spend too much getting that. That would be cool.

And we know that interchangeable lens cameras have more power for taking the shot at the right time, and the ability to change lenses for different effects and capabilities . . . what if the point-and-shoot audience got more on-board with that and wanted these cameras more for that. So . . . still have their cell phone, but instead of picking up a point-and-shoot . . . pick up a dSLR or mirrorless. (Just had a friend of a friend do that.)

Heck. Getting back to point-and-shoot cameras. What if we could get m4/3 or APS-c performance, and fast shutter out of a point-and-shoot, and half decent zoom, almost pocketable for less than $500. That would be amazing for vacation shots, casual shooting, etc.

Although sales may be down . . . I think there is still some places to explore / to expand what we can do. Things I'm looking forward to that isn't quite here yet . . .

What if . . .
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Old Aug 6, 2013, 3:38 PM   #10
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A bit of a storm in a teacup I think...
Given the economic down-turn- and the fact that DSLR/ILC's are at the expensive end of the spectrum- I think they're holding up pretty well.
The smaller,less expensive digicams will continue to be hit by the ever improving camera-phones....
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