Subject matter could encompass anything over any distance so I would look to have the widest selection of optics with the least overlap, unless you carry an extra prime for speed over a slower zoom.
The biggest weight issue would be with your tripod. Unless you see a real need for it, or have an easy way of totting it, I'd leave that at home.
Although you've had problems with it, not having the 45-200 available would be a mistake in my opinion, and the 14mm Panasonic is a great lens to just have on the camera for most any landscape or low light opportunity. Both the 14mm Panasonic and the 14-42 kit lenses are just way too easy to carry to not have them both along since they and the 45-200 give you an unending range of 14-200mm.
As far as the manual focus primes go...well...that's your call. I don't know how much you use them.
A Bag? I usually can't even make that decision for myself, let alone someone else. Right now I am pretty settled on two bags, depending on how big the outfit is I am carrying. The Thank Tank Retrospective 5 for small three lens setups (worked great for walking/riding the Metro in the city of Paris), or the Think Tank Retrospective 7 for bigger five lens outfits.