Originally Posted by JohnG
Unfortunately, getting global data is a rarity. We get Japan data every year but it would be a mistake to extrapolate that just like it would be a mistake to rely on Amazon figures.
No, they won't be abandoned. I do think they will go back down to a more normal footprint - just like film SLRs did.
Sure, but that's not really the question. The question is how many of said people USE a DSLR vs their cell phone/tablet or point-and-shoot. When you're primarily viewing photos on smart phones the difference for many photos really becomes "not worth the hassle" to most people. DSLRs went through an explosive bubble phase. But a lot of folks have already given it up because it's a pain in the butt to carry around. And, they realized that 90% of the photos were just viewed electronically anyway.
Everything will reduce the abundance of DSLRs. 5 years ago the difference was HUGE - now, smaller options exist that will take the casual photographer's money. Sure, serious hobbyists will still opt for DSLRs or other ILCs. But the majority of buyers aren't serious hobbyists. So, I don't think DSLRs will come to an end but they will shrink down in overall marketshare because the smaller, more portable options are good enough for the average consumer.
I can see what you are saying on all points. It will be interesting to watch over the years for sure.