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Old Jul 25, 2004, 7:35 AM   #11
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barthold wrote:
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For the new 10D, just think about what you think is reasonable in a $1500 camera, given the current higher end products. The new 10D is not going to make the 1D-MK II obsolete!
The DRebel didn't make the 10D obsolete... The 6.3Mp cameras came out with a higher resolution than their previous 1D at the time of release, so it has been done. The D60 -> 10D transformation kept the same resolution, this is old hat and too predictable: IMO it got to be an Oooh and Aaah a` la 300D/Rebel when that camera was released.

I don't need another 10D, even with a new ETTL-2 or a larger/faster buffer. I want something that will prevent me from buying an A2 even if it costs higher than $1500! A de-featured 1D mrkII for example
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Old Jul 25, 2004, 11:55 AM   #12
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I wouldn't mind a de-featured 1D-II. Especially if it still has that AF system.

But what I really meant is that I'm sure canon started on the 1Ds-II even before the original came out. So they've been working on that one for awhile and unless its crazy in its specs, I'd think that they'd be near finishing it up by now.

I agree that the market centric view is also very appropriate. If someone told me that the 1Ds design team is what produced the 10D, then I'd think... ok, they are taking a break on the 1Ds and its replacement won't be for a little while longer.

Not the best logic, but as I like to say "I know just enough to confuse myself."

Eric
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Old Jul 25, 2004, 10:27 PM   #13
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Canon probably does not have enough motivation to release a 1Ds-II yet. They and others don't seem to give Kodak much credit for their high-res cameras, claiming that the Canon 11 MP is the best in the business (let's assume small format). If/when Kodak or someone else gets really competitive, or a bit before that if possible, I'd expect to see Canon release a 1Ds killer, not before.
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Old Jul 25, 2004, 11:55 PM   #14
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Assuming the rumors are correct, and that the next 10D will be announced in September at Photokina, I doubt that it will simply be a de-featured 1D MKII, at the same price as the current 10D.

I mean, the 300D was announced in Aug '03 and the 10D in Feb '03. If the 10D mkII is announed in Sep '03 and the 1D mkII was accounced in Jan '03, the gap between the two announcments will be pretty close (within a couple months) of the gap between the 300D/10D.

The 300D was a defeatured 10D, with a lesser body and sold for a few hundred less than the 10D. How could Canon release a defeatured 1D mkII with a lesser body and sell it at a couple thousand less than the 1D mkII? Sure, technology prices drop quickly...but THAT quickly? People are still trying to get a 1D mkII (most places have them back-ordered).

I've seen on at least one forum, folks suggesting the 10D mkII will have the 45 point AF, E-TTL-II, Digic-II, weather-proofed lens mount, 8 fps, 20 RAW buffer and 1.3 crop 8 MP sensor for between $1500-2000. I questioned one of them, and their response was that the difference in price would be for the more durable body of the 1D for professionals. Come on...close to $3000 for a more durable body?

Those features in a less durable body, labelled as a 3D and selling for $3000 or so, now that I could see. E-TTL-II, Digic-II and faster writing to CF card, that I could see in the next 10D. 45 point AF, 8fps and a 1.3 crop 8mp sensor are not likely, IMHO, to be found in the next 10D.

Of course, we'll know if I'm wrong in September (assuming those who are in the know are right). In the meantime, I think I'll take some photos.

Graeme

P.S. If I am wrong, and it has the 45 point AF and 1.3 crop 8mp sensor, well then I'll look at buying it when it's readily available up here. Judging by the availability of the 1D mkII, that'll be sometime in early 2005. :lol:
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Old Jul 26, 2004, 12:12 AM   #15
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I think i will go out on a limb here, standard caveats, I would be shocked if they switched to a 1.3x crop factor and 8mp. digic II is likely, but downgrading a 1d mkII, isn't really something i would expect.

OTOH, microsoft does that all the time, but with software. Canon is probably taking there time with the design in order to make a compelling upgrade. Ultimately though, whatever the next camera is it will likely be a better camera, and probably cost the same as the 10d.

Personally i would like dpp to be bundle with it as well as the new bp-511a.
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Old Jul 26, 2004, 2:23 AM   #16
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I have learned this with anything that isnt a press release of the actual produc. Take it with a gain of salt!

yes it would be cool but whats cool doesnt always = whats most profitable for Canon in the long run.
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Old Jul 26, 2004, 1:43 PM   #17
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VictorEM83 & Graeme Shiomi
I would generally agree. How ever much we would love something with a professional level AF system in a cheaper body... it won't happen. That is part of what makes those professional grade cameras. That is part of why people buy them over the 10D's of the world.

It would cut into sales of the Pro bodies, I would guarrenty it.

Maybe they'll add more AF sensors and more cross sensors (detect contrast in two directions instead of only in one) but they won't give us something that will AF at F8 (which the 1D, 1D-II, & 1Ds, and their pro line film bodies can do.) The 10D has one cross sensor, in the middle. but it only works in high performance mode at f2.8, the pro bodies have more of them and they work at f4. I'd kill for that.

I wouldn't be surprised if they put the same 8MP sensor from the 1D-II into the 10D's replacement. Saves money. Or, maybe they could take a line out of Intel's book and find a way to take rejected 1D-II sensors, cut them down to 1x6 crop size and put them into the replacement (I'm dreaming here.) Reduce resolution, but get better noise performance. 3FPS is a nice round number... I'd like it to get faster, but I doubt it.

Digic II is only logical. The faster they can move the Digic I out of product the better for them.

but the most logical thing has come from Graeme. They will anounce in Photokina (or just before it, which seems to be the trend.) That is what that trade shows is for, and it's not that far away.

Eric
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Old Jul 26, 2004, 7:24 PM   #18
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They will anounce in Photokina (or just before it, which seems to be the trend)
You're right, probably just before it, to ensure a nice steady stampede of people towards their booth.

I say, Digic-II, E-TTL-II and improved writing to the card. MAYBE the same sensor as the 1D-mkII, although I still say that's a stretch considering that increasing the size of a sensor increases the cost significantly.

Now, what would be really cool would be a 10D replacement AND the announcement of a 3D or 7D.

Personally, Digic-II, E-TTL-II wouldn't sway me to go buying yet another new body. Even a 1.3 8mp sensor wouldn't push me over the edge...but as soon as 45 point AF makes its way down to a level I can justify buying...I'm there!

Graeme
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Old Jul 26, 2004, 10:08 PM   #19
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E-TTL II is just a firmware upgrade, the flash units stayed the same as are most new lenses, since they already had the distance encoding incorporated, feeding through the same interfacing pins to the camera -> They could easily release a new firmware for the existing 10D or DRebel...
Digic II is a speed up through Double Data Rate instead of standard sdRAM allowing more processing power in shorter time... Depending on what everyone shoot, but the 10D is plenty fast for me already. Both of theses features are not enough to hold the competition @ bay, especially E-TTL 2, when both Nikon and upcoming Minolta have them already!

Most people don't need the environmental sealing unless they cover sport events in the rain. My 10D takes an occasional rain drop or two, but I normally run for cover for my kids before worrying about the camera!
Hardened shutter mechanism which is guaranteed for "X" cycles also adds cost, but hardly needed by the average user. The number of AF points is also questionable, who cares how many there are as long as the camera focus correctly, or at least at the same level as the competitions ???

IMO the 8Mpixels is the only product differentiator that can make everyone, even existing owners, part with at least another $1500!
... You can bet the next F929, A3, CP9700, or C-9090 will have at least 10Mpixels (and I rarely shoot above ISO 100) :idea:
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Old Jul 26, 2004, 10:22 PM   #20
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Unfortunate, for the masses, MP sells. I hope you're wrong on that one, but I fear you are not.

The switch to Digic II wouldn't be for the faste write time. It would be to reduce parts and inventory overhead. Get as many cameras off of Digic II is a win for them, as they'll be making it for awhile into the future.

ETTL-II is only logical, I ment to mention that one.

Eric
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