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Old Jan 13, 2005, 10:16 PM   #11
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SidM wrote:
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The only thing missing is a breakdown of digital cameras as far as SLR v. non-SLR models. But, wow, you've helped me tremendously.
Not that difficult to deduce... :idea:

From the 1st link: Sony is 1st with 15 million units (none of which are dSLRs!) while Canon came in 2nd at 14.7 million units +/- a quarter of revenue...

From the 2nd link: 15% of sales are coming from the lenses - You may assume 1/1 ratio (or some ratio thereof)lens/camera price accounting for the fact that not too many folks are spending this kind of money like us in this forum (ie most folks are sticking with just the kit lens vs some pro spending $5k+ for1 lens) - You can also ignore 1Ds/1Dmrk2 sales since they are probably in the noise (asjudged againstmillions of units shipped) -> most dSLRs sales are then originating from the 20D/10D and 300D family!
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Old Jan 13, 2005, 11:00 PM   #12
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But, NHL, the thing is, neither of those references specifies sales figures for the dSLR models --- they both talk 'digital cameras' as a generic family which includes the puny little point-and-shots which are selling like crazy and must be a significant portion of the overall sales volume. Or, did I miss something that you caught? What I'd really like to pin down are the figures for the dSLRs alone.
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Old Jan 13, 2005, 11:30 PM   #13
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Exactly I'll base it on the lens sale - how many lens willan average person buy -> the lens revenueaccount for%15% of the camera revenue!

Point and shoot buyers don't buy lenses
You just need to make an educated guess as to average price that people are spending on lenses when they buy their dSLR...
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Old Jan 14, 2005, 12:32 AM   #14
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I finally understand your logic -- very interesting, indeed. What would be your best guess as to the 'average' lens cost? I would imagine that most lens selections would be conservative 50mm focal length types. What's your take?
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Old Jan 14, 2005, 1:45 AM   #15
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I'll hazard a guess here that the average user (non camera fanatic) is going to end up with one of the kit lenses unless the salesperson is really good and talks them into upgrading. At least that is what I seem to notice with people I know who have bought the drebel/10d and d70/d100. Most of them are quite happy with it and show very little interest in getting more lenses. The few who have, have gone for the relatively inexpensive telephotos like the 75-300.

I'd say if photography is not your passion you won't be inclined to spend tons of cash on it to buy all the extras likehigh-endlenses.
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Old Jan 14, 2005, 8:44 AM   #16
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You can do what PeterP suggested or ignore the users completely, and just look at the lens number alone - in either case you'll need to picture a "bell" curve where on either side of the center are the kit lens and 70-300 and on the extreme left edge is the 600 f/4 and right edge special lenses like the Tilt and Shift

15% is pretty much the max - remember people may have several lenses, but only 1 body, and institutions buy where expensive lenses (no body) are then "loaned" to their photographers :?

Then you have the Canon number by region - I don't want to do the homework for you but dSLR sales are not that high as an overall percentage if you look at Kodak drifting in/out of the 2nd spot with only 1 or 2 dSLR in its product line depending on which quarter -> IMO Nikon is in trouble with their Coolpix line (ie their revenue maker), and have no "marketing shine" in their dSLR line to pull in new buyers... or at least at the rate that Canon does it - 20 new models this year according to the link (at least some have to be dSLRs)!

This is not an exact science - Remember the pollsters with their red and blue states? :-) :-) :-)
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