Go Back   Steve's Digicams Forums >

LinkBack Thread Tools Search this Thread
Old May 2, 2007, 11:42 AM   #31
Senior Member
romphotog's Avatar
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 163

TCav wrote:
Why would you think that, in 5 or 10 years, you're going to find something you'll be able to connect it to?

When NASA sent Voyager out beyond the edges of our solar system, they enclosed a golden phonograph record, and instructions on how to make a record player, so that someday some alien civilization might be able to listen to what we had to say (as if they would care.) If Voyager were to crash in your backyard tomorrow, would you be able to listen to that record?
my friend, I am sure you recall that aliens did indeed find Voyager and listened to that record, and sent an alien to Earth...
...thank god capt. Kirk and Spock were close by to save the day.
A movie was made about the incident, called Star Trek: The Motion Picture(1979).

romphotog is offline   Reply With Quote
Old May 2, 2007, 3:00 PM   #32
Senior Member
TCav's Avatar
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Washington, DC, Metro Area, Maryland
Posts: 13,826

romphotog wrote:
my friend, I am sure you recall that aliens did indeed find Voyager and listened to that record, and sent an alien to Earth...
...thank god capt. Kirk and Spock were close by to save the day.
Yes, I remember that. It happened sometime in the 23rd century.

Last summer, MIT hosted a conference for time travelers; I'm planning to attend.
TCav is offline   Reply With Quote
Old May 2, 2007, 3:47 PM   #33
JimC's Avatar
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: Savannah, GA (USA)
Posts: 22,378

I've got 3 or 4 turntables now. My wife was actually mad at me not long ago for having more than one taking up space. They're not even hooked up to anything (just separate turntables). I think two of them are in a closet in my bedroom, and one of them is in a stack of stuff in my office) I just hate to to throw away working hardware, no matter how obsolete it is (or how infrequently it's used). :-)

Now, I do have a need for an 8 track tape player. I've got some tapes with no player now (I made the mistake of selling my last vehicle with one in it and the one we were using inside broke quite a while back).

My brother-in-law still has one that works. But, I don't think I could talk him out of it. He's more of a "pack rat" than I am.

As for the original topic, if you don't have a way to read the data you plan on storing for many years, it's not going to do you any good.

So, I would store more than one complete system capable of reading the disk drives if you don't plan on migrating the data to newer storage technologies from time to time (and you'd need to make sure they didn't deteriorate in any way - capacitors leaking, etc.).

And, even if you have complete systems capable of reading the data, you need a way to communicate with a newer system later so that you can actually do something with the data (print, send, view, etc.) Has anyone seen any paper tape being read lately? ;-)

It's safer to migrate to newer storage technology periodically.

JimC is offline   Reply With Quote
Old May 2, 2007, 4:01 PM   #34
Senior Member
rinniethehun's Avatar
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 1,870

" Last summer, MIT hosted a conference for time travelers; I'm planning to attend."

Could you let me know when that was? Maybe I'll join you.

the Hun

rinniethehun is offline   Reply With Quote
Old May 2, 2007, 6:40 PM   #35
Senior Member
TCav's Avatar
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Washington, DC, Metro Area, Maryland
Posts: 13,826

JimC wrote:
Has anyone seen any paper tape being read lately? ;-)

It's safer to migrate to newer storage technology periodically.
I agree. It would take over 39,000 punch cards to store a 3MB JPEG photo. Definately keep them off the bookshelf in your basement.
TCav is offline   Reply With Quote
Old May 2, 2007, 9:06 PM   #36
JimC's Avatar
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: Savannah, GA (USA)
Posts: 22,378

Digital Rights Management is going to add yet another layer to the complexity of using content later.

We're already seeing steps being taken to insure that only "trusted" software and drivers is installable on some newer operating systems, with more restrictions on content that's playable. Heck, you can't install an unsigned (i.e., unapproved) driver in Vista (for your own protection, of course). ;-)

I don't like the steps being taken in the name of preventing piracy or the cozy relationship with the recording industry that only lets you see some content on "approved" players and operating systems.

What happens if you can't play that content on newer machines later, even if you do find a way to migrate the data to new storage technology because of restrictions built into the hardware or operating systems?

Don't think that it can't happen. It's already happening. It's just that people are being eased into it so slowly, they dont' seem to think it's that big of a deal.

There have already been attempts to get legislation passed to eliminate things like analog devices (again, in the name of preventing piracy). So much for those old tapes and records if they ever succeed in getting some of that stuff passed. lol Here is one article on it:


I've already seen cases of some Sony movies refusing to play in some of their own players, thanks to new copy protection. Here's one example of that:


The newer Blue Ray and HD formats are far more sophisticated, and if they think a player's key may have been compromised, newer movies may not work in a given player unless it's updated.

The recording industry has a habit of treating everyone as a criminal with tough copy protection and threats of legal action under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act if anyone publishes a way to use protected content in a non-approved manner (i.e., break the encryption), and the bigger operating system vendors are going along with it.

Think it can't happen to your own content? I wouldn't be so sure. We're already seeing encryption being used in metadata from raw files produced by some cameras (for example, newer Nikon DSLR models encrypt metadata related to White Balance), and they're not the only ones guilty of using encryption in image files either.

Nikon (or any other camera manfacturer that I'm aware of) hasn't sued anyone for cracking encryption or publishing the code to decrypt metadata yet, or try to have them prosecuted under the DMCA. It did worry Adobe enough that they refused to support the as shot white balance (over fears of violating the DMCA) when Nikon started using encryption, until a compromise was reached and Nikon provided an SDK (software developer's kit) that let Adobe decrypt the data while still using their own demosaic algorithms. But the data is still encrypted.

Sure, developers have cracked the encryption (for example, Dave Coffin published his ANSI C source code and many image editors can decrypt the info now). But, that's not to say they you can always use your existing content if this trend continues, or restrictions in hardware and software won't prevent you from using content that's not properly identified with the authorization needed for you to use it.

We're only seeing the "tip of the iceburg" on the control that some companies would like to have, and one legal tool they can try to use is the DMCA.

I followed a forum thread with great interest for a while, when a member published that he'd managed to crack the encryption for both HD and Blue Ray formats that a number of companies worked so hard to make unbreakable.

Nobody believed him. So, he later published a proof of concept app, but did not give out any of the keys. But, he kept hinting where you'd be able to find.

So, lots of people started looking at it, and next thing you know, some cracks were made and keys started to be published online with updated versions of apps that went beyond the proof of concept stage and actually let you play some encrypted HD and Blue Ray movies (on non-approved players and operating systems).

I haven't looked at the threads lately (but I did read hundreds and hundreds of posts at one point a while back, downloaded and looked at the code that people started modifying and more).

Some of the posts about the cracks made it to Digg, and after they started removing links to keys, etc., due to cease and desist letters about violating the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), Digg's users revolted.

So, the Digg founder gave into the users and published a key himself in the title of a blog post, vowing to fight it to the end (taking the sides of the users and saying that they would no longer censor the posts or links)

There are over 170 stories (and climbing) about this issue:


The legal battles should be fun to watch in any event, especially with the press this one is going to get.

But, I wouldn't be so sure that you can actually use older storage devices on operating systems and hardware 20 years from now if the current trend continues on restricting what you can and cannot do with both software and content in the name of preventing piracy, even if the interfaces to support that hardware (disk drives, CDs, DVDs, etc.) still exist and it's still legal to have them. lol

I keep computers, operating systems, players and more around. I want to be able to use my content (software, music, photos, etc.) years from now, even if newer hardware and operating systems won't work with it. I do try to migrate the important stuff to newer storage technology from time to time (but, I still keep the old stuff, too).

JimC is offline   Reply With Quote
Old May 4, 2007, 12:59 PM   #37
Junior Member
photonboy's Avatar
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 1

300GB Storage. A few points:
  1. BluRay DVD's will drop down to a very low price. They are roughly $10 for a 25GB DVD now but single-layer (4500MB) DVD-R's were $7 in 2002 and now they are as low as 30 cents (on sale in bulk). Do read about the DVD's before purchasing. 25GB BluRays will likely be the cheapest DVD media but we'll see. In a few years storing 300GB (12x25GB) could be as low as $10. [/*]
  2. The "Drobo" (similar to external RAID) maynot be exactly what you want, I'll be looking for a mass storage unit that has many configuration options such as: using different sized drives; at least one RAID-type portion (using 4 physically separate drives); mixed media (Hard Drives, Solid State Drives, future technology). I like the idea of full managment for diagnostics, defragging, and power control. [/*]
  3. SSD's (Solid State Drives) will replace my hard drives. I mention this because they use the same hard drive interfaces. Since hard drives are often the slowest part of computers, many older computers will get a boost through the IDE interface. Therefore, IDE/PATA will hang around for a long time still. The current max read speed is about 80MB/s. It'll take several years for an inexpensive drive to reach the SATA2 300MB/s maximum bandwidth (except for mirrored RAID of course). Also, I expect eSATA (I believe just a physical extension of the power and SATA connection) to become very popular for local RAID/NAS etc. I do believe they'll create a SATA3, backwards compatible connection. Personally, I'd aim for 1000MB/s. [/*]
  4. Flash drives for cameras and Multimedia devices will continue to increase in size and decrease in price. (SSD's are essentially fast flash drives with the necessary electronics to act as hard drives). However, for 300GB of storage it'll most likely be an SSD you use but I wouldn't rule out a slower flash drive if it costs less. Computers and HDTV's will increasingly have Flash Drive and SSD slots for quick access. [/*]
  5. I'm not convinced you need to fire up the drive (try Googling or even writing your hard drive Manufacturer). However, at this date not using a 300GB drive seems a waste of money. I'd consider looking for a sale on good DVD's such as Verbatim. I got lucky a while back and bought 100 DVD+R's (about 440GB) for $25. Suit yourself, however despite the unlikelihood of hard drive failure when not being used you still have all your eggs in one basket. [/*]
  6. Redundancy. I'd like to see a new format such as "mirrored" DVD's. A 25GB BluRay could "see" about 6GB of data but write and read it from 4 different locations on the DVD. Therefore, scratches, UV or heat degradation are very unlikely to cause the DVD to fail for a long, long time even for low quality DVD's.[/*]
Finally, only you can judge the importance of the data, how much time you want to spend, your space and the costs. If it's really important I'd probably write to DVD+R's, store the hard drive (cool, dry, electrostatic bag away from any electromagnetic interference or find a lead-lined bag too) then I'd likely write the DVD+R's back to one of the newer storage types in a couple years.

*Home computers in ten years will be based around a single, silent PC. Many people will have a mass storage in the PC or separate that contains ALL their media for easy access by any screen via a Wireless network. Intelligent mass storage handling similar to Drobo will becoming increasingly common. Backing up importan files and sharing media to friends will be commonplace (and create legal nightmares).

In ten years, High-Definition goggles (OLED or retina optical scan) will be incredibly popular with portable computers (perhaps in cellphone) which can access home systems. Some goggles will have external cameras to input realtime video so that the user can see:

a) actual surroundings via camera feed

b) Movies, computer interface etc via the computer link

c) Mixture of the two (including making your mate look different.. )

The reason I mention the Goggles is that people will begin to store more and more of their lives by saving the video of what they are seeing. Demand for this stimulate an even more massive market for vast amounts of inexpensive storage.

Media Storage price prediction: Hard drive storage is currently 250X cheaper than it was exactly 10 years ago. Hard drives are approaching limits as well as being replaced by other media but there is room to increase the density to perhaps 10X so 2.5" 3000GB drives are quite possible. That's a lot of space but BluRay movies will eventually average 40GB so that's "only" 75 movies.

However, if you examine other media (my money's on SSD's with perhaps carbon-based transistors) and the space limits according to physics I've calculated that densities in excess of one MILLION times will be easily achievable in the future. Guessing how much data can be stored on a 2.5" drive in 2010 is tricky but after VERY careful examination of Physics, Economics, the "need" for Mass Storage and the time required for R&D cycles I predict the following:

Prediction: In 2017, a 1.8" SSD (2.5" will be obsolete) will have a storage capacity of up to 100,000GB (100TB; also 2000x50GB BluRay DVD's). Due to the incredible densities, SSD's the size of your thumbnail will become common for all electronic devices capable of playing digital media. Since the power will be very low compared to the rest of the computer, most computers will use RAID striping despite the already extreme reliability. (The portability of 1000's of DVD's will create a Piracy nightmare as people begin to update their digital media collections wirelessly by simply walking around.)

Micro-SSD's will probably be sold in up to 5000 GB sizes. Some laptops will have a small "RAID BOX" where the hard drive is currently stored that has 16 slots for several different combinations from 1 Micro-SSD up to 4X4. SATA (SATA4 ?) is likely to still be the interface of choice. Incredibly high SATA transfer rates using technology based on Internet switches and fiber optics should be available. Even though SSD physical transfer rates may reach 1000MB/s by 2017, mirroring may still be used to further boost speeds to maximize media Piracy. A 4X increase to 4000MB/s would mean that a 40GB BluRay DVD could theoretically be copied in 10 seconds instead of 40 seconds.

Games and SSD:

Internet downloading of legal games and media will continue to increase. I fully expect to see Micro-SSD's created with several levels of copyright protection including a scan of your thumb print by the remote control or other device to enable playback.Anyway, we will see the ENTIRE 9 SEASONS of the "X-files" (in High-Def)on a single Micro-SSD.

Google-Earth and Video Games:

This is an example of another "need" for more memory. Google Earth will continue to improve, but I think in addition to satellite images we'll see the entire Solar System digitized in 3D not only for educational and commercial uses but also for fun. Video Game companies will produce games that require this vast 3D environment. This can be downloaded of course but it will also be sold as a Micro-SSD. Just think, the entire Solar System to explore stored in something no bigger than your thumbnail!

You "SSD-head":

Between 10 and 20 years from now, people will begin to replace their eyes or at least insert the digital "Goggles" internally. Just like sci-fi, we'll start to see slots appear somewhere near the brain to upload data to our internal PC's, though the Matrix style won't happen. Uh, do you REALLY need to stick a pencil-sized metal probe in the base of your skull just to make a digital connetion? (although it looked darn cool.. ) Hmmm.. I wonder how many Gigabytes it would take to represent the human mind when they find a way to digitze it. I suspect it'll easily fit on.. Yep, you guessed it... a Micro-SSD drive.

OKAY, I'm presently WAAAY off topic but I hope someone enjoyed reading this.
photonboy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old May 4, 2007, 3:07 PM   #38
Junior Member
JimCummings's Avatar
Join Date: Jul 2002
Posts: 11

Another fly in this ointment is the Netgear. Their network storage device (the SC101) uses a unique formatting which cannot be read without their own device. If that is the case with this drive you may have problem should Netgear abandon or change this method. (I see where the SC101 device is now selling for a very low price).

I abandoned the Netgear system when it kept crashing my new computer. Netgear admitted it was their fault but couldn't fix it and wouldn't refund my money. I backed up my data, reformatted the drives through windows and bought a simple disk array.

If this is not the case and this is another Netgear product using a standard format I would purchase an inexpensive USB 2.0 disk enclosure (as cheap as $20). USB 2.0 should still be a recognized interface in five years and then multi terrabyte drives (perhaps even solid state multi-terrabyte) will cost little and you can back up the data.Good luck.
JimCummings is offline   Reply With Quote

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On

All times are GMT -5. The time now is 1:41 PM.