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What I think will happen with advanced amateur DSLR's in the future

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#1

Jul 19, 2010 4:08 PM by lesmore49

Currently many advanced amateurs use cropped sensor DSLR's such as the Nikon D300S, Canon 7D, Pentax K7.

I'm familiar with these brands...sorry I know Sony and Olympus also offer cropped sensor DSLR's in the same bracket...just don't know their models as well. But include them in.

I have noticed that of late...Canon has dropped the price on their FF 5D, Mk. 11, Nikon I think has done the same with the D700 and Sony has brought out the A850 (? right model name) FF at a low, appealing price.

Sony, IMO started this lower priced FF DSLR ball rolling when they brought out the A850. Kudos to Sony....I just wished they had done this 3 years ago, before I started my cropped sensor DSLR system.

FF was out of reach of many an advanced amateur...but now with these significantly reduced FF prices.....well is the game set to change ?

I wonder if the big two (N.+ C.) ...and Sony..continue this price reduction for FF DSLR cameras will FF eventually replace premium quality, cropped sensor DSLR's like the D300S, 7D, K7, etc.... ?

If this happens the others....Pentax, Olympus will have to get on the FF wagon in order to stay competitive with the biggies...Nikon and Canon.

I recently handled the small Samsung NX10...with interchangeable lens. I could see this Samsung style camera format, taking over from entry to medium price, level cropped sensor, DSLR's.

It's small, feels like a quality unit and having different lenses, etc...and a relatively low price will appeal to the market niche that wants a good camera, with interchangeable lenses...but who don't want to go to the premium level cropped sensor DSLR.

If the cost keeps going down on FF's to the point where there is not much point in getting cropped sensor DSLR's...where will that leave the cropped sensor premium DSLR's ?

This market will presumably dry up.

Then camera companies will focus on FF DSLR's , which will be for advanced amateurs/ pros.

Where that will leave me and others with our many cropped format lenses...I dunno.

But I think this is what will happen within the next 5-10 years.

If I had to start over again...no cameras, no lenses....I think I would buy a Canon 5D, Mk. 11 FF with the 17-40 L Canon W/A, the Canon F 5.6 L 400 mm, the Canon F 1.8 mm normal lens.

This would be actually a bit less then my Pentax premium quality DSLR body, entry level DSLR body and 6 Pentax lenses.

At one time the 5D body was way out out of my budget for a body. Not so much anymore.

The only thing I can see is manufacturers hesitant on making their expensive cropped sensor DSLR's and lenses that really work just for the cropped sensor format...obsolete.

A lot of customers won't be happy when they see their cropped sensor 'investment' worth very little.

Also, although some have felt their FF DSLR's are the new Medium Format...I never saw it that way.

Having a medium format system...one body (Mamiya) and three lenses and having used the Pentax 6 X 7 system...I know what these film medium format can do, compared to 35 mm slr's and FF...35 mm sized sensor digital systems.

The new Pentax 645 medium format's sensor has 40 MP's on a sensor that if I recall correctly is around. 1.7 times the size of a FF DSLR.

Ditto in sensor MP's and sensor size with those other medium format digitals....Hasselblad, Mamiya, Leaf, etc.

But that's an aside...the real question will the cropped sensor DSLR be on the endangered list within 5-10 years or maybe sooner ?

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#2

Jul 19, 2010 4:15 PM by shoturtle

the nex, nx and the m4/3 will not be able to replace a aps-c dslr. The AF system is not going to keep up with a low price entry level dslr with an aps-c sensor.

Even though the a850 is low price, it is still expensive compare to the 7D's, 300D's, and K-7's. So you may see an advance level dslr with aps-c, and a lower end pro level with FF.

There will be a place for medium format as well.

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#3

Jul 19, 2010 4:25 PM by lesmore49

Quote:
Originally Posted by shoturtle
the nex, nx and the m4/3 will not be able to replace a aps-c dslr. The AF system is not going to keep up with a low price entry level dslr with an aps-c sensor.

Even though the a850 is low price, it is still expensive compare to the 7D's, 300D's, and K-7's. So you may see an advance level dslr with aps-c, and a lower end pro level with FF.

I think that rapidly evolving technology and what seems to be a corresponding reduction in price for new, state of the art equipment in both those areas you refer to...will happen within the next few years.

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#4

Jul 19, 2010 4:35 PM by Hawgwild

The marketplace can be cruel sometimes. What I think will happen, and ina reasonably short period of time is this: As more and more 35mm sensors are produced and sold to the public, price will drop to the point aps-c sensors are now. The cameras with aps-c sensors will hang around and die a slow death from lack of sales at some point. At 61, I couldn't say if this will all happen quick enough for me to benefit, but I can only hope so.

The only format that has withstood the test of time, in cameras as well as film, is 35mm. No, I didn't leave out medium format, but that format has never been "for consumers".

In other words, I see what happened to film happening to digital. Medium format digital will drop in price as well, but never to the point where it will be widely affordabe to consumers.

You must remember, these are only my opinions, thank you...

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#5

Jul 19, 2010 5:12 PM by TCav

As the price for FF dSLRs goes down, so does the price of APS-C dSLRs. So there will always be a market for them over their FF brethren. Plus, since APS-C dSLRs can use FF lenses AND APS-C lenses, they have more lenses to choose from, which also makes them more attractive. APS-C dSLRs have their own set of wide angle lenses, and the FF telephoto lenses are 'longer' on an APS-C sensor.

Smaller, lighter, cheaper, and a larger selection of lenses.

What's not to like? Why would anyone buy a FF dSLR, unless they had a very speciallized purpose in mind?

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#6

Jul 19, 2010 6:40 PM by lesmore49

Quote:
Originally Posted by TCav
As the price for FF dSLRs goes down, so does the price of APS-C dSLRs. So there will always be a market for them over their FF brethren. Plus, since APS-C dSLRs can use FF lenses AND APS-C lenses, they have more lenses to choose from, which also makes them more attractive. APS-C dSLRs have their own set of wide angle lenses, and the FF telephoto lenses are 'longer' on an APS-C sensor.

You can't always use APS-C lenses designed for APS-C cameras on FF cameras. Many of us have ASP-C lenses that work well, only on APS-C cameras....that's the prime concern.

Smaller, lighter, cheaper, and a larger selection of lenses.

What's not to like? What's not to like...when you have invested big money in an ASP-C format equipment and lenses...the changeover to FF body(s) and lenses, can be very expensive.Why would anyone buy a FF dSLR, unless they had a very speciallized purpose in mind?
There are a lot of a advanced amateurs out there that would like to get a FF camera...not just those who are either pros or have very specialized purposes in mind. As a long time advanced amateur, who also was a working photographer (long time ago when I was in the publishing business)...any advantage or possible increase in picture quality is something many of us want.

I think that those who have very specialized purposes in mind...might look at a medium format....if they have the rather expensive entry fee.

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#7

Jul 19, 2010 6:57 PM by lesmore49

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hawgwild
The marketplace can be cruel sometimes. What I think will happen, and ina reasonably short period of time is this: As more and more 35mm sensors are produced and sold to the public, price will drop to the point aps-c sensors are now. The cameras with aps-c sensors will hang around and die a slow death from lack of sales at some point.Yes...my point exactly. That's what I see happening. As you say the market can be cruel sometimes. I think that if it gets that way...I could probably wrangle the bucks to buy something like a Canon 5D Mk. 11 FF...a L wide angle and an L telephoto....but it would be a financial kick in the pants...and then my recently purchased ASP-C equipment...for the most part(over the past 3 years) could join the rest of my older film equipment in my personal museum in the rec room. At 61, I couldn't say if this will all happen quick enough for me to benefit, but I can only hope so.Exactly. I'm also 61 and I wonder the same thing....will it happen quickly enough for me to benefit...given my rather 'advanced' age.

The only format that has withstood the test of time, in cameras as well as film, is 35mm. True...35 mm had a very long run...I bought a used Leica RF 35 mm...with the hope that I would use it forever. Still can...but I much prefer digital...I guess that's the conundrum...there's pro's and cons to everything that evolves. No, I didn't leave out medium format, but that format has never been "for consumers".You're right. I have medium format film equipment...not ever used by too many consumers.

In other words, I see what happened to film happening to digital. Medium format digital will drop in price as well, but never to the point where it will be widely affordabe to consumers.I agree on both points.

You must remember, these are only my opinions, thank you...
I share those opinions, but I feel that there is a very strong likelihood that this is the scenario that will unfold.

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#8

Jul 19, 2010 8:23 PM by JohnG

Who knows? It's worth noting that Canon is banking on APS-C for their semi-pro lineup and continuing the megapixel race. Nikon, however, decided with the D700 to keep pixel count low and thus make a camera that both landscape/portrait photogs AND sports/wildlife photogs could use. Canon is still counting on a divergent approach - 5d line for full frame and 7d for sports. The difficulty is Canon is saying pixel count is of premium importance to full frame users - nikon not so much.

I have to say, Hards80 and I had a conversation a month or so back - I think you'll see the evil/nex/m43 type cameras replacing aps-c. More and more lenses will be available and right now the biggest drawback is focus system. But that will get better every generation. I really see aps-c getting squeezed out. People like and have gotten used to portable - all their gadgets are smaller now - smaller is the future except for nich groups like sports/pro portrait. The serious amateurs and pros will gravitate towards full frame and it's benefits and the common photographer will go evil/m43 type camera. The two ends will rob the middle within the next decade I think aps-c will be gone.

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#9

Jul 19, 2010 8:26 PM by VTphotog

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hawgwild

The only format that has withstood the test of time, in cameras as well as film, is 35mm. No, I didn't leave out medium format, but that format has never been "for consumers".

...
You mean you have never used a Kodak Brownie with 126 film?
35mm has been the format of choice for nearly 50 years, so I will agree that it has stood the test of time, but medium format has had a pretty long run too.

brian

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#10

Jul 19, 2010 10:26 PM by Hawgwild

Quote:
Originally Posted by VTphotog
You mean you have never used a Kodak Brownie with 126 film?

brian
Absolutely!I have owned many different format cameras, 110, 126, 127, 120, 35, never went for the aps cameras. Never shot medium format except at work, years ago. I used a Koni-Omega Rapid 100, rangefinder, with no built in meter. Got very nice results with that one. I had to lug my gear around in a station wagon!

I love how lightweight the slrs are now.

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