What I think will happen with advanced amateur DSLR's in the future

[JohnG]

But Tcav, the advantages APS-C dslrs have over micro 4/3, evil, nex, pen cameras is going to go away too. Right now, autofocus and lens selection are the benefits. Within 10 years that won't be the case. Every benefit you talked about aps-c having, those other types will have over APS-C dslr. That's why, imo, sony put so much into Nex and have pretty well ignored advanced aps-c.

[Biro]

Personally - and I'm only spaking for me - a FF would have to not only drop in price to under $1000 (at least for body only) but also shrink to the size and weight of a 35mm film DSLR. Otherwise, APS-C suits me fine. Your mileage may vary.

Now, as to whether APS-C will be squeezed out by EVILs on the bottom and FF on top, we all know it's probaby too early to say. But check out this Reuters article: Apparently Canon is planning smaller DSLRs to compete with EVILs:

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTOE66J04U20100720

Assuming this is correct, I'm guessing Canon will be skipping EVILs for now and these cameras will be APS-C. I say that because - at least for a while - there's no way they're going to be able to build a camera the size of a G1 or smaller with FF. But I stress that's for now. Who knows where technology will take us? But it's not going to be this year or next. 5 years? I still wonder. 10 years? Very possible.

[JimC]

That's why, imo, sony put so much into Nex and have pretty well ignored advanced aps-c.

Well, keep in mind that the new Sony NEX models use APS-C size sensors.

The mirrorless Samsung NX10 is also using an APS-C size sensor.

The mirrorless design of those models allows for a closer registration distance, hence their newer lens mounts.

Also, Sony will be releasing more dSLR models this year using the existing Minolta A (a.k.a., Maxxum, Dynax) lens mount. They've already shown prototypes of two models they're working on at PMA (both with HD Video), and they've already announced they've got more on the way for this year. See the dSLR news sections on some of their sites. Here's a quote from one of them (and note the "Newly-developed Exmor APS HD CMOS sensor" part, too):

http://www.sony.co.uk/hub/dslr/latest-news

Sony’s DSLR range keeps on growing. Look out for more exciting new models that combine stunning image quality with powerful, easy to use features. Key facts:

• Mid-range successor to DSLR-A700 in development
• More new DSLR models launching in 2010
• Newly-developed Exmor APS HD CMOS sensor
• AVCHD format video recording
• New lenses include Distagon T* 24mm f/2, G 500mm f/4

Also, even though the A700 replacement is taking longer than expected, Sony has still released more new dSLR models (Sony A230, A290, A330, A380, A390, A450, A500, A550, A850) in the last 14 months compared to Canon and Nikon combined, not even counting the NEX-3 and NEX-5 models, which are technically not dSLRs, with all except of one of them (the A850) using an APS-C size sensor.

So, that doesn't sound like the APS-C sensor is going away anytime soon, especially since all of their latest efforts released over the past few months (NEX-3, NEX-5, A290, A390) are using a 14MP APS-C CMOS Sensor, including the NEX models using a brand new lens mount.

BTW, even though the new NEX models are using a new lens mount, I suspect we'll see Sony upgrade the firmware in the NEX models to support AF with Minolta A-Mount SSM (Supersonic Motor focusing) lenses, too (that are using the same basic technology as Nikon's AF-S, Canon's Ring USM, and Sigma's HSM lenses); as they've already said they're working on that in interviews. I've also seen reports that SSM lenses did Autofocus on NEX models via an Adapter with some of the pre-release firmware, but due to some [undisclosed] issues, Sony hasn't included that feature in any of the production firmware releases (yet).

IOW, I see no indication that Sony intends to abandon APS-C anytime soon (and a lot of evidence that they're going to continue development of cameras using that sensor size).

10 years from now? Your guess is as good as mine. :-)

[TCav]

Originally Posted by JohnG

But Tcav, the advantages APS-C dslrs have over micro 4/3, evil, nex, pen cameras is going to go away too. Right now, autofocus and lens selection are the benefits. Within 10 years that won't be the case. ...

I never said it would. What I am saying is that it won't go back. 'FF' won't make a comeback. 'FF' is now just for special applications, the way that 6x7 was about 10 years ago. And today's 645 dSLRs are equivalent to those 5x7 view cameras of 20 years ago.

Smaller is bigger!

[lesmore49]

Originally Posted by TCav

I never said it would. What I am saying is that it won't go back. 'FF' won't make a comeback. 'FF' is now just for special applications, the way that 6x7 was about 10 years ago.I have to disagree with you regarding FF. FF is not...just... for special applications IMO. Up here I see both ASP-C and less...but still a goodly # of FF cameras...mostly D700's and 5D Mk. 11's. Enthusiast photographers use them as their every day camera. I know a fair amount of individuals who are amateurs and use them for vintage car shows, wild life photography. They're amateurs, don't sell their photographic services, but many are older, have some cash flow and they want to have top equipment to pursue their passion...photography.

A # of advanced amateurs with for example, D 200/ D300/D300S, 40D/50D/7D, K10D/K20D/K7's and other ASP-C cameras , have FF on their wish list.

But I realize that I'm, like most of us, in a rarefied stratum...the advanced amateur (AA) crowd. When you compare our numbers to those using point and shoot, entry DSLR's...we pale in comparison.

The numbers of AA is very small...so the number of advanced ASP-C and FF DSLR's is also very small in the scheme of things.



And today's 645 dSLRs are equivalent to those 5x7 view cameras of 20 years ago.I think the medium format digitals are similar to the film medium format of the past. Bigger sensors then either ASP-C and FF...just as in the film days where medium format had a similar corresponding...significantly larger... size differential in neg size.

I have a medium format system...film...Mamiya with 3 lenses...bought it in '84...used it a lot...also used (rented though) Pentax 6 X 7. Still have the Mamiya stuff.

It's (FF) an upgrade certainly over ASP-C. A FF like a D700, 5D, A850 is something I wouldn't mind having..although I'm very happy with my current ASP-C system.

I do think with the current prices of Medium Format that this format will be restricted to successful pro photographer...studio, wedding, landscape, etc. There will be some moneyed advanced amateurs that will have a Medium Format, but they will be few, IMO...again expense.

I know that although I could afford to get into Medium format in the film days...now I couldn't.


Smaller is bigger!

Could be. I think the rapid evolution of technology will continue to improve photographic tools. I'm glad that I'm living in the digital age.