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Old Sep 17, 2007, 10:02 AM   #21
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I'll give Nikon credit. They've played a pretty smart game lately, with huge increases in profits.

But, they're a very small company compared to Sony or Canon.

They can't afford to make as many mistakes (whereas the larger companies are far more diversified and a misjudgement of the market won't hurt them as much).

So, my hat is off to the marketing research guys and gals at Nikon for the way they've attacked the DSLR market over the past year.

But, the competition is going to heat up and I would not take the long term success of any company for granted. Companies tend to "leapfrog" each other from time to time, thanks to unexpected innovations.

That's all good for consumers.

Video is another area that I expect to gradually merge with still images.

So, the DSLR as we know it will probably vanish over time, replaced with electronic shutters and viewfinders, and Canon and Sony are big players in the current pro market for video cameras.

For example, look at what Sony is shipping now in the non-DSLR niche (a sensor that can do 6MP images at 60 frames per second with movies at 300 frames per second).

http://www.sony.net/Products/SC-HP/c.../imx017cqe.pdf

Casio already has a prototype of a new model using this sensor, and I'd expect to see cameras out from Sony, Nikon, Pentax and others using it, too.

http://www.casio.com/news/content/2B...-67B371510603/

So, I think that it's only a matter of time before we start to see this kind of thing in higher end (i.e., Pro level) digital camera models. Cameras as we know them are evolving at a rapid pace.

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Old Sep 17, 2007, 10:27 AM   #22
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Hello JimC,

Hope you had a great weekend.

As for what Nikon has accomplished to date I am impressed. Though, I have to say I had reservations about their business decisions late last year and early this year when they put the D40 to market. Then three months later the D40x. I think that was a msi-step. Imagine being a D40 owner. HEH!! Or a camera shop owner that had just placed an order for 100 D40's.

But putting out cameras like the D300/D3 more than makes up for it IMHO. Though we're just speculating right now as there are no test reports yet. For obvious reasons. Will be interesting to see how the D300 compares to the Canon 40D and Sony A700.

As for DSLR's "vanishing"...I don't see that happening for a long time. When you merge technologies you usually end up with a product that is not great at either task. Or not as good as a tool that was designed for a single purpose. I mean lets take the camera market.

Digital photography has taken over. Every one owns a digital camera of some kind. I'd venture to say 1 digital camera for every cell phone user. Yet there are still purists out there still taking great pictures with film based cameras. Go figure.

I think we'll have DSLR's for MANY years to come.

That being said, one major camera technology shift we might see,are more FF DSLR's. Selling for less. Assuming a lot of us will also believe some "vignetting isn't a bad thing".


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Old Sep 17, 2007, 10:36 AM   #23
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From what I understand, the Nikon D40 and D40x models are selling like hotcakes, as the old saying goes. lol

That's the DSLR market niche that makes up the vast majority of sales, and it's more important to a company's bottom line compared to the higher end models.

As for video and still cameras merging, I think that's where we'll see things going. We're already seeing that in the non-DSLR market niche. It's only a matter of time before we see that in the DSLR market niche, too. Once the sensor and electronic viewfinder technology is sufficient to replace optical viewfinders (without the noise, delay, etc. you see now), I think we'll start seeing that kind of thing migrate it's way into the higher end models.

That makes sense, as the technology for both image types (video and still) is too similar not to go that route for the long term.

Many people didn't think we'd ever see Live View modes in DSLR models either. But, we've already got a number of models that can do that (including models from Canon, Fuji, Olympus and Nikon now).

Give it a while (and I don't think it will take "many years" ). ;-)

We'll see innovations that we can't even imagine right now at the pace technology is currently advancing.

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Old Sep 17, 2007, 11:10 AM   #24
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JimC wrote:
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From what I understand, the Nikon D40 and D40x models are selling like hotcakes, as the old saying goes. lol

That's the DSLR market niche that makes up the vast majority of sales, and it's more important to a company's bottom line compared to the higher end models.

As for video and still cameras merging, I think that's where we'll see things going. We're already seeing that in the non-DSLR market niche. It's only a matter of time before we see that in the DSLR market niche, too. Once the sensor and electronic viewfinder technology is sufficient to replace optical viewfinders (without the noise, delay, etc. you see now), I think we'll start seeing that kind of thing migrate it's way into the higher end models.

That makes sense, as the technology for both image types (video and still) is too similar not to go that route for the long term.

Many people didn't think we'd ever see Live View modes in DSLR models either. But, we've already got a number of models that can do that (including models from Canon, Fuji, Olympus and Nikon now).

Give a while (and I don't think it will take "many years" ). ;-)

We'll see innovations that we can't even imagine right now at the pace technology is currently advancing.

Selling like "hot cakes"? Interesting. Not that I doubt you. I haven't looked into that lately.It's just that the move of putting to market the D40x only 3 months later screamsmis-step. At least to me and some of my other photography buddies.

Why would any buyer (in his/her right mind) choose aD40 over a D40x? Given thechoice. Would the price difference of $210.00 CAD make that much of a difference? Knowing full well, that as a new buyer, onewouldalso be investingfew grandon lenses and accessories. Makes no sense to me.Yet, both models are selling "like hotcakes". (shrug)

And if that was such a great idea why didn'tNikon put out a D80x 3 months after we got the D80? Will we see a D300x 3 months after we get the D300? A D3x 3 months after the D3? I think not.

What Nikon did was rush to market with the D40 to have a DSLR in the new ultra-budget category of DSLR's which at the time only included the Pentax K10D. When really they wanted to put out the D40x. For the Xmas rush.

I think the suits had too much sake over there at Nikon central at the time.

As for digital still cameras merging with video to form oneviable product I think I'll have to "agree to disagree" here. I just don't see it ever coming to a point where we'll ever have a product that is equally as proficient at either task. Where we'll see a "digivid camera" that is competent shooting 1080p video at 24fps, the size of a DSLR (with a 3.5" flip-out screen), video camera quality "live view", interchangeable lenses (that is good for both still photography and video) and be able toproduce pictures as well as a 39 MP Hasselblad (or even a Canon 5D FF with a good L series lens). I don't think so.

If we're still here yapping should that happen you can say "I told you so!!"

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Old Sep 17, 2007, 11:44 AM   #25
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I don't know the exact numbers. The last time I remember seeing the charts on model leaders, the D40 was outselling the D40x and I think the D80 was outselling the D40 by a small percentage. But, that may have reversed now.

In any event, the under $1k models are what currently make up the majority of DSLR sales, and Nikon is no doubt doing very well with their D40, D40x and D80 models from what marketing research seems to imply (for example, they managed to overtake Canon in DSLR marketshare in Japan for the first half of 2007).

But, the year end holiday season is where a lot of buying comes in. So, we'll need to wait and see what happens for the year as a whole and let the firms that track worldwide market share put together the numbers sometime in 2008 to track the longer term trend.


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Old Sep 17, 2007, 12:22 PM   #26
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JimC wrote:
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But, the year end holiday season is where a lot of buying comes in. So, we'll need to wait and see what happens for the year as a whole and let the firms that track worldwide market share put together the numbers sometime in 2008 to track the longer term trend.
For example, Sony managed to capture some 6.2% of the worldwide DSLR market in 2006 (coming in third behind Canon and Nikon), even though they only had one DSLR model, that was only available for the second of half of the year.

I heard a very recent rumour (someone quoting a Sony executive) that Sony thinks that they're going to pull off 9+% this year in wordwide DSLR market share.

Somehow I doubt that with the competition they're going to have and the apparent downtrend in A100 marketshare versus other models. But, nothing would surprise me since the holiday season this year is yet to come and all of the players' cards may not be on the table yet.

The year end holiday season is going to be interesting, with a number of new camera models being pushed out the door by manufacturers to try and make sure they're on the dealers' shelves for the year end buying frenzy.

But, Nikon is going to do quite well from all outward appearances so far.


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Old Sep 17, 2007, 1:57 PM   #27
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JimC wrote:
Quote:
JimC wrote:
Quote:
But, the year end holiday season is where a lot of buying comes in. So, we'll need to wait and see what happens for the year as a whole and let the firms that track worldwide market share put together the numbers sometime in 2008 to track the longer term trend.
For example, Sony managed to capture some 6.2% of the worldwide DSLR market in 2006 (coming in third behind Canon and Nikon), even though they only had one DSLR model, that was only available for the second of half of the year.

I heard a very recent rumour (someone quoting a Sony executive) that Sony thinks that they're going to pull off 9+% this year in wordwide DSLR market share.

Somehow I doubt that with the competition they're going to have and the apparent downtrend in A100 marketshare versus other models. But, nothing would surprise me since the holiday season this year is yet to come and all of the players' cards may not be on the table yet.

The year end holiday season is going to be interesting, with a number of new camera models being pushed out the door by manufacturers to try and make sure they're on the dealers' shelves for the year end buying frenzy.

But, Nikon is going to do quite well from all outward appearances so far.

That's an impressive number coming from a company that had only 1 model in their DSLR line up. Helps to have such an established brand name like Sony. It's amazing what marketing dollars can do for a company.

I think some of it has to do with the fact that a lot of the buyers of the Sony DSLRs are those same Sony product buyers that buy simply because they have bought into the Sony name. They might not know a sensor from a CMOS. But they'll buy that Sony DSLR just the same.

They want to look cool at gatherings or when they travel. So knowing Sony is now making DSLRs they immediately run out and buy Sony.

Of course there are those who have done their research and buy Sony DSLRs.

Any how, this will indeed be an interesting year for the camera industry and consumers alike. Full of landmark model introductions from so many companies. So much to choose from. Especially the "big 2"...Canon and Nikon.

On to other topics...
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