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Old Mar 22, 2009, 11:24 AM   #21
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The M4/3 system has two lenses, a standard zoom and a telephoto zoom. The odd thing is that they are made by Leica, and as such, are extraordinarily inexpensive. That makes me wonder if maybe Panasonic is subsidising their manufacturer so they can get some market penetration. If it works, they'll make big money, but if it doesn't, people, including possibly the OP, will be left with a white elephant. It may do some things well, maybe even very well. But what happens when they want to try macrophotogtaphy or shoot indoor sports?
The lenses are not Leica. Its has been made public that Leica has turned down the designing of lenses which were uncorrected for distortion and instead rely on software correction for those faults. Those lenses are 100% Panasonic.

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Old Mar 22, 2009, 11:30 AM   #22
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fldspringer wrote:
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The lenses are not Leica. Its has been made public that Leica has turned down the designing of lenses which were uncorrected for distortion and instead rely on software correction for those faults....
Thank you. And all the more reason not to buy into the system. Software compensation for problems with the rectilinearity of alens means soft edges and corners. Add to that agressive noise removal, and you've got a photo that is devoid of detail.
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Old Mar 23, 2009, 7:53 AM   #23
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Full Frame Nikon D700 is around 75% more expensive than the "equivalent" APS-C D300. However, prior to the release of the D700, the Full Frame D3(same release date as the D300) was 200% more expensive than the D300.
Apples and oranges. The D300 is Nikon's 'Top of the Line' APS-C dSLR, while the D700 is their 'Low Ball' FF dSLR. This is like comparing a 'Top of the Line' GMC Sierra 3500HD Pickup with a GMC C4500 Medium Duty Truck. The Pickup costs more, but the C4500 can do some things a lot better.

'Full Frame' is the new 'Medium Format'. Get used to it.
Your opinion only.
You are saying that like it's fact, not just opinion.

The point of this thread is discussing opinions on the future of 4/3 and micro 4/3.

My opinion is that APS-C will decline to the bottom end of Nikon & Canon, with most of their range bring full frame. I think Olympus will pick up the slide in the APS-C market with 4/3, and that Panasonic will grab the sub DSLR market(with micro 4/3) for P&S photographers wanting interchangeable lenses and bigger sensors. And I think Olympus will grab the small sized micro 4/3 market with tiny micro 4/3 cameras.
But that's just my opinion, not fact.
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Old Mar 23, 2009, 9:50 AM   #24
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Fact #1: APS-C dSLRs have a larger selection of lenses that FF dSLRs.

Fact #2: The averageAPS-C dSLRcosts a lot less than the average FF dSLR.

My opinion is that, because of those two facts (plus a multitude of others),APS-C dSLRs outsell FF dSLRs.

My opinion is also that those two facts are not likely to change any time soon.

Therefore, my opinion is that APS-C dSLRs will continue to outsell FF dSLRs for the foreseeable future.

Furthermore, since my opinion is that APS-C isn't going anywhere anytime soon, my opinion is that there will be no "slide" for 4/3 to "pick up".

I presume you won't dispute the facts. I beleive my opinions are based on those facts, and are thereforeentirely rational and reasonable, but I welcome your attempts to dispute them.
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Old Mar 23, 2009, 10:48 AM   #25
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Therefore, my opinion is that APS-C dSLRs will continue to outsell FF dSLRs for the foreseeable future.

Furthermore, since my opinion is that APS-C isn't going anywhere anytime soon, my opinion is that there will be no "slide" for 4/3 to "pick up".
TCAV - I agree with your reasoning. I would also add that size is a reason why APS-C will also be preferable to a lot of users.

Now, it might be tempting to say "well 4/3 has a distinct advantage in size category". BUT here's the problem:

Like it or not 4/3 currently has a disadvantage of dynamic range and high ISO performance vs. APS-C. They also don't have the focus performance that wildlife and sports shooters require and Canon and Nikon offer - even at the prosumer level. Now, that's not a fact of the sensor just the manufaccturers producing the cameras with those sensors.

Secondly there just aren't the manufacturers on board with 4/3. Nikon, Canon, Sony all make full frame and APS-C but none of them have adopted 4/3. Pentax, currently the #5 dslr manufacturer (I believe they're #5) doesn't support 4/3. For all intents and purposes, Oly is the only real player in that market.

IMO I think 4/3 is probably the most likely to go away long term - IF, micro 4/3 reaches it's potential.If other manufacturers had gotten into 4/3 I'd think it would have a better chance. But the APS-C sensors produce better quality in terms of dynamic range and high ISO and at a MUCH more affordable price than full frame. Unless full frame cameras come down by $1000 you won't see APS-C going away.

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Old Mar 23, 2009, 11:02 AM   #26
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I don't see the price of FF cameras coming down significantly anytime soon, therefore I don't see any major shift away from APS-C Cameras. And make no mistake, neither Nikon or Canon is going to give up their share of that market.

I can see the popularity of mirrorless interchangeable lens cameras going up. But censor size is irrelevant, other than the fact both 4/3 and APS-C are larger than what is available in Superzooms. Again I don't see a shift away from dSLR's what I see is a gap being filled. And again, if these cameras do turn out to be popular as I believe they will. Nikon, Canon and others will jump in there with offerings of their own. But don't expect them to all have the same m4/3 mount.
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Old Mar 23, 2009, 11:26 AM   #27
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But even if the price of FF does come down, the price of APS-C will come down too. Whatever new technology that results in less expensive FF dSLRs will also result in less expensive APS-C dSLRs. Nothing can happen that will make FF dSLRs cheaper than APS-C dSLRs.

Edit: ... in my opinion!
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Old Mar 23, 2009, 2:05 PM   #28
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I agree with TCav and JohnG that there is no way that FF overtakes APS-C in the foreseeable future.


Now, with regards to 4/3s, if micro 4/3s is indeed a success then maybe panasonic and olympus would move away from 4/3s, but in that case any initial investment made in 4/3s will not be lost as lens and accessories would fit micro 4/3s anyways.

For the 4/3s system, even in its micro variation, to go away completely, something major would have to happen, as I doubt either panasonic and olympus would move away from the dslr market or scrap their investment in it. You will see pentax move away from dslrs before either of those, as the pentax share of the japanese market (only place where we have reliable data) has gone from 10% to 1.8%.

In the meantime, the canikon share of the Japanese market dipped below 80% for the first time ever last year, mostly thanks to sony, which keeps growing.

So if the OPs question is whether his investment would be safe in a 4/3s system, the answer is yes, as I don't see either version of it disappearing any time soon.


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Old Mar 23, 2009, 5:29 PM   #29
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I don't see it.

Canon and Nikon continue with the same mount beacuse they still produce 35mm film SLRs. Pentax and Minolta (Sony) continued with the same mount so they could continue to use the lenses they'd been producing for decades. Olympus abandonned everything they had so they could start fresh, and what they have is nice, but it still has a long way to go before it can stand with the others. (Sales projections from Japan notwithstanding. Those figures jump wildly from week to week, so I don't put much stock in them.)

M4/3 is a P&S digicam with the bother and expense of interchangeable lenses. They even put a pentaprism hump on it to make it look like something it wasn't, because they didn't want it to look like what it was. It reminds me of that fixed focus 35mm film camera you used to get free when you subscribed to Time Magazine.

Larger image sensors require larger and more complex lenses. M4/3 is all that without the capability or flexibility of FF, APS-C, or even 4/3.

Someone here once said that Olympus lenses were more telecentric than lenses for other dSLRs, and the smaller image sensor helped with that. BecauseM4/3 lenses mount even closer to the image sensor, they have to be even more telecentric, and they have to do it through a smallerlens mount.

The obstacles are formidable.
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Old Mar 23, 2009, 6:22 PM   #30
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TCav wrote:
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I don't see it.

Canon and Nikon continue with the same mount beacuse they still produce 35mm film SLRs. Pentax and Minolta (Sony) continued with the same mount so they could continue to use the lenses they'd been producing for decades. Olympus abandonned everything they had so they could start fresh, and what they have is nice, but it still has a long way to go before it can stand with the others. (Sales projections from Japan notwithstanding. Those figures jump wildly from week to week, so I don't put much stock in them.)

M4/3 is a P&S digicam with the bother and expense of interchangeable lenses. They even put a pentaprism hump on it to make it look like something it wasn't, because they didn't want it to look like what it was. It reminds me of that fixed focus 35mm film camera you used to get free when you subscribed to Time Magazine.

Larger image sensors require larger and more complex lenses. M4/3 is all that without the capability or flexibility of FF, APS-C, or even 4/3.

Someone here once said that Olympus lenses were more telecentric than lenses for other dSLRs, and the smaller image sensor helped with that. BecauseM4/3 lenses mount even closer to the image sensor, they have to be even more telecentric, and they have to do it through a smallerlens mount.

The obstacles are formidable.
Well, the data are not projections, but actual sales figures in Japan. They have a system there that is similar to the soundscan system the US has for CDs. And while they jump a lot from week to week, that is because sales fluctuate a lot from week to week.

The yearly data, on the other hand, is relatively stable. Over the past 4 years, Nikon has gone from the low 30s to 40%, canon dropped from 48% to 40%m sony went from negligible to 8-9%, pentax went from 10% to less than 2, and olympus has remained stable at 5%.

Meanwhile, the G1 sold as many cameras from october to december last year as pentax did the whole year.

The market is not driven by the enthusiast segment.


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