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Old Nov 9, 2013, 10:35 AM   #11
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I suspect another shakeout may be coming as the newer companies that got into camera sales as a lucrative market may decide to bail out as the going gets rough.

I tend to agree that the average person (not a real camera buff, which is a minority!) prefers to not have to carry anything extra with them when their cell phone can take all the images they want. And many people now are simply using the cell cameras to document their lives and just sharing the resulting lackluster images on social media like facebook.
For those that are still printing, how big does the "average joe" actually print 4*6? 5*7? even 8*12? You don't need the latest & greatest devices to do that. Myself I have printed 8*12's from my 8mp cell through a consumer lab and they looked just fine.

I am thinking that there is both a switch to using smartphones for taking images and an over saturation of existing cameras out in the world that are more that capable of satisfying their owners expectations.

As demand and sales drops, the earnings & profits tumble, resulting in less interest by manufactures to produce for that market segment.

Also with lower unit sales, the cost per unit may start to rise to meet needed profit margins. Which in turn may cause lower unit sales.
Entering the death spiral zone.

Recent announcements from the big players:
Canon cuts earnings expectations and reduces slr sales targets by a million units.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-1...ales-slow.html

Nikon cuts its profit expectations by 23%
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...kyo-mover.html

Sony imaging arm not doing well, but making profits from component sales to others.
http://www.engadget.com/2013/10/31/s...nings-q2-2013/

And if you believe dpreview articles P&S and mirrorless shipments appear to be heading for the dumpsters
http://www.dpreview.com/forums/post/51729502
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Old Nov 9, 2013, 2:23 PM   #12
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All of which points to it being a maturing market. The saturation point is just about here, and improvements are now coming in smaller increments, which has people holding on to existing equipment longer.
Same thing has been going on with computer sales for a while.

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Old Nov 9, 2013, 7:32 PM   #13
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Yes agree, and profit margins in retail PC are now next to nil.
All the small computer shops seem to be going out of business around us.
Only the big-box shops seem to be surviving, and even they are closing down locations.

On a side note: wonder if tablets are having a similar effect on PC's as smartphones are on the camera market. I know many of my friends have bought into tablets, and have all but stopped using their home PC's at all.
I've resisted so far, but am considering picking up one of the google 7" tablets mostly for that heilcon focus stacking program. Can't see trying to manage my image library on one.


It will be interesting to see where the camera market goes over the next few years!
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Old Nov 15, 2013, 8:22 PM   #14
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As apparently one of the three people in the world that does not have a smartphone, I like my camera to take well exposed and focused pictures.
I like my GZ Ravine cell phone to make calls, receive them and take a dunking in the river while fishing and keep working.

Guess I'm old
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Old Nov 15, 2013, 10:27 PM   #15
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This is a bizarre article.

The author keeps bouncing back and forth between digital cameras as a whole, and dSLRs in particular, to justify his conclusions.

He starts with
Quote:
Consumer DSLRs “dead in 5 years”
then says
Quote:
Consumer digital camera sales are down 36% this year.
Why?
I think there are four reasons.
  • Smartphones
  • Satisfaction with current DSLRs
  • Lack of innovate products
  • Global economic downturn
How, exactly, is a 36% drop in digital camera sales an indication that consumer dSLR sales will be dead in 5 years? And how, exactly, is satisfaction with current dSLRs a reason for a 36% drop in digital camera sales?

I agree that the widespread adoption of smartphones is a major impediment to the sales of P&S digicams, but the sales of interchangeable lens cameras has be steady. There was that period from 12/12 to 4/13 where there was a slump in interchangeable lens camera shipments, but it was preceded by that period from 5/12 to 11/12 when shipments were above average.

Interchangeable lens cameras are tools for people that are serious about photography, and those shipments are holding steady. It's the shipments of compact digital cameras that is, no doubt, being adversely affected by the advent of smartphones. For the purposes of this article, it is improper to lump dSLRs and P&S into the same category, and it's wrong to draw conclusions about dSLRs because of what's happening with P&S cameras.

And if that weren't enough, the second article, that was quoted in the first, has been edited to include a quote from the first. This seems to be more like a love fest than an actual scholarly effort.

Yes. P&S sales are down. But that's not a harbinger of what will happen to the tools that serious photographers use.
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Last edited by TCav; Nov 15, 2013 at 10:37 PM.
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Old Nov 15, 2013, 11:24 PM   #16
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I guess a lot depends on how finely one divides the market. There are fixed lens cameras which are probably further from 'point and shoot' than some of the mirrorless interchangeable lens cameras, so lumping all ILC cameras together as DSLRs is as disingenuous as calling all fixed lens cameras 'P&S'.
The rate of growth of sales of all digital cameras is slowing, indicating that it is past its peak. What the articles are getting at is that the more dramatic slowdown in P&S sales is a harbinger of things to come regarding DSLRs and probably other ILC cameras. Pity they didn't actually state it that way.

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Old Nov 16, 2013, 7:28 AM   #17
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Well said, Brian. I agree with your last post.

And Ektachrome, yes, you are getting old. so am I as I have an I-Phone but only take and make calls with it.

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Old Nov 16, 2013, 9:51 AM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VTphotog View Post
I guess a lot depends on how finely one divides the market.
The only real data on the market is from CIPA, and since January of 2012, CIPA has divided the market into Camera with Built-in Lens vs. Camera with Interchangeable Lens, and within Camera with Interchangeable Lens, Single Lens Reflex vs. Non-Reflex.

Quote:
Originally Posted by VTphotog View Post
There are fixed lens cameras which are probably further from 'point and shoot' than some of the mirrorless interchangeable lens cameras ...
Perhaps, but I would limit that category to the more advanced 'Bridge' cameras like Panasonic's FZ-200 and Sony's RX-10, and I would hesitate to exclude them from Camera with Built-in Lens simply because they have better than average or more capable than average lenses, or more buttons or menu options than is typical. As far as what we're discussing here is concerned, though, that category of camera is probably less affected by the proliferation of smartphones than others in that category.

Quote:
Originally Posted by VTphotog View Post
The rate of growth of sales of all digital cameras is slowing, indicating that it is past its peak.
I beg to differ. The rate of growth of shipments of Camera with Built-in Lens is slowing, perhaps indicating that it is past its peak. But the shipments of Camera with Interchangeable Lens is holding steady.


Quote:
Originally Posted by VTphotog View Post
What the articles are getting at is that the more dramatic slowdown in P&S sales is a harbinger of things to come regarding DSLRs and probably other ILC cameras. Pity they didn't actually state it that way.
... or present any data that might indicate that was the case, or any logical argument supporting it.
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Old Dec 7, 2013, 4:28 PM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ektachrome View Post
As apparently one of the three people in the world that does not have a smartphone, I like my camera to take well exposed and focused pictures.
I like my GZ Ravine cell phone to make calls, receive them and take a dunking in the river while fishing and keep working.

Guess I'm old
Quote:
Originally Posted by zig-123 View Post
Well said, Brian. I agree with your last post.

And Ektachrome, yes, you are getting old. so am I as I have an I-Phone but only take and make calls with it.

Zig
I do have a smart phone (android) but I pretty much use the camera as a convenience. Just got back from T’giving in ATL, I had my DSLR and my Sister-in-Law was using her iPhone. World of difference there. That being said, I think camera phone are going to kill P&S. They are great for snapshots which is the P&S wheelhouse, and everybody (sorry Ektachrome ) has one close by. But they’l have to pry my DSLR out of my cold, dead hands.
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Old Dec 8, 2013, 7:01 AM   #20
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Social Media is certainly impacting what is perceived as acceptable image quality and how people share their images with friends and family. This, in turn, impacts, camera sales.

Case in point;
For the last 4yrs, I've been taking photographs of children sitting on Santa's lap at our towns "Christmas Stroll" event. We take photographs of the kids and then e-mail the jpeg to the family. It is a free service. The program is sponsored by the Cape Cod Art Association, of which I am a member. It's a way of giving back to the community that supports us.

Each year, we have one or two families that want to have their children sit on Santa's lap without my taking a photo. Instead, they want to take the photo with their smart phone. This year, of the 106 families that showed up for this event, I had around 8-10 families that made that request. And, a majority of those that did want me to take a photo, also took photos using their smart phones. No one used an ILC or P&S. The only DSLR in use that night was mine.

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