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Old Dec 9, 2013, 6:49 AM   #21
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The only real data on the market is from CIPA, and since January of 2012, CIPA has divided the market into Camera with Built-in Lens vs. Camera with Interchangeable Lens, and within Camera with Interchangeable Lens, Single Lens Reflex vs. Non-Reflex.


I beg to differ. The rate of growth of shipments of Camera with Built-in Lens is slowing, perhaps indicating that it is past its peak. But the shipments of Camera with Interchangeable Lens is holding steady..
Not according to those CIPA numbers you refer to. The numbers they posted earlier show an 18% drop in ILC shipments from 2012 to 2013:
http://www.cipa.jp/english/data/pdf/d-201306_e.pdf
Here was the comparison 2012 vs 2013:
http://www.dpreview.com/news/2013/08...IPA?comments=2
It's a reduction of 18%. minus 18% is NOT "holding steady"
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Old Dec 9, 2013, 9:30 AM   #22
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It's a reduction of 18%. minus 18% is NOT "holding steady"


That's 18 months of CIPA data. Camera shipments over the period dropped significantly, entirely from the decline in shipments of cameras with built-in lenses. But shipments of cameras with interchangeable lenses is steady.

(I've also seen the July, August and September statistics, and they should indicate a more hopeful outlook for cameras with built-in lenses. The October statistics are out, but I haven't seen them yet.

I don't know how DPReview.com is drawing it's conclusions, but the data speaks for itself.
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Old Dec 9, 2013, 9:41 AM   #23
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Tcav -
I'm not sure where you learned sales trend analysis. But, here are the numbers:
Jan - June 2012 DSLR only shipments = 7.652 million
Jan - June 2013 DSLR only shipments = 6.263 million
That type of same-period year-to-year analysis is common.
And, you should be able to calculate (7.652 - 6.263) / 7.652 = 18.15 or 18%

I get that doesn't reflect how you WANT the situation to be. But for the first half of 2013 there was an 18% drop in shipments compared to same time period in 2012. Only in you rmind is that "holding steady". It has nothing to do with other cameras and their drop. But, don't take my word for it - consult anyone else who has done sales research. This is pretty basic stuff.
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Old Dec 9, 2013, 9:57 AM   #24
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Shown graphically you can see visually there is a drop - this graph is more typical of how you would view year-over-year performance. The graph TCAV showed would be more useful for monthly trend analysis which is not what we're talking about here:
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Old Dec 9, 2013, 10:09 AM   #25
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That type of market analysis accounts for seasonal fluctuations. Certainly the sales of P&S cameras is seasonal (i.e.: Mothers Day, Fathers Day, Graduation, Summer Vacation, Christmas), but the sales of interchangeable lens cameras is not.

But also remember that last year was a banner year for cameras with interchangeable lenses. The Jan-Oct '13 shipments was only 84.1% of what it was in '12, but in '12 it was 121.% of what it was in '11, and that was 137.5% of what it was in '10. So I'm sure that even you would have to admit that a drop of 15.9% (not 18%) isn't significant in the grand scheme of things.
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Old Dec 9, 2013, 10:42 AM   #26
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Plus, those numbers indicate that, on the whole, shipments of cameras with interchangeable lenses is on the rise, and has been for years.

So not only are those articles wrong, but the opposite is true. '12 was better than '11, and '11 was better than '10, and all by larger margins that we can expect for any drop in '13.
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Old Dec 9, 2013, 10:53 AM   #27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TCav View Post
Plus, those numbers indicate that, on the whole, shipments of cameras with interchangeable lenses is on the rise, and has been for years.

So not only are those articles wrong, but the opposite is true. '12 was better than '11, and '11 was better than '10, and all by larger margins that we can expect for any drop in '13.
Sorry. I haven't been looking too closely at the numbers, just hearing the media hype . . .

But from the chart above, it looks like DSLRs is holding pretty steady. What percentage is DSLRS vs. all cameras sold for 2012 vs 2013? Is the percentage going up?

In which case, a case can be made that although DSLR sales (and cameras in general) is declining, the remaining people that are buying cameras, there is an increased percentage wise of those purchasing DSLRs?

Hows that for marketing double speak! <grin>

Of course, this kinda gets us right back to the idea that cellphones are eating up the point-and-shoot market, which we already know. ?


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Old Dec 9, 2013, 11:17 AM   #28
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Glen - while DSLRs saw an 18% drop from Jan-Jun 2013 vs same time period in 2012, other ILcs saw a similar 18% drop. Built in lens cameras saw a much larger 48% drop.

Now, while from a numbers standpoint you now have "growth" in DSLR vs. fixed-lens buyers I think that's not a useful way to look at it. Overall, DSLR shipments are down. 18% isn't the end of the world but it isn't holding steady. What will be interesting to see is how non SLR ILCs do vs. DSLRs over the next 3 years.
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Old Dec 9, 2013, 11:46 AM   #29
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What will be interesting to see is how non SLR ILCs do vs. DSLRs over the next 3 years.
That is true.

It will probably keep shifting.

I'll make the shift with my "big" cameras when I get better performance from non SLR ILCs. Then it will become a no brainer. ?

And with Canon's EOS M/2 and whatever Nikon may bring out in that product "sub"-category, then they will be part of that shift as well, I guess.

I'm personally not ready to switch yet, but it sure is interesting thinking of what changes are in store. <grin>

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Old Dec 9, 2013, 12:57 PM   #30
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Don't worry about it, is my advice. After all, you can still buy new replacement buggy whips if you don't want to deal with those newfangled automobile things.

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