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Old Feb 5, 2014, 12:57 PM   #41
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Originally Posted by Shutterbug74 View Post
Nothing is ever up, up and up as there will always be fluctuation. I'd be concerned if the dropping was year over year.
Unfortunately, getting global data is a rarity. We get Japan data every year but it would be a mistake to extrapolate that just like it would be a mistake to rely on Amazon figures.

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However, I don't see the manufacturers abandoning DSLR's anytime soon. 15 yrs from now....who knows.
No, they won't be abandoned. I do think they will go back down to a more normal footprint - just like film SLRs did.

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When you compare a picture taken with a DSLR vs a Point and Shoot, most people (from my experience) prefer the DSLR.
Sure, but that's not really the question. The question is how many of said people USE a DSLR vs their cell phone/tablet or point-and-shoot. When you're primarily viewing photos on smart phones the difference for many photos really becomes "not worth the hassle" to most people. DSLRs went through an explosive bubble phase. But a lot of folks have already given it up because it's a pain in the butt to carry around. And, they realized that 90% of the photos were just viewed electronically anyway.
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I wouldn't go back to a fixed lens if you paid me too. I think the micro 4/3 are a bigger threat to taking a chunk out of the DSLR's sales as they become more sophisticated with their lenses. I do foresee those sales increasing as they are more affordable than the higher end Nikon/Canon lenses (while the quality isn't quite yet there for certain type of shots, give it a few years and I think that could change).
Everything will reduce the abundance of DSLRs. 5 years ago the difference was HUGE - now, smaller options exist that will take the casual photographer's money. Sure, serious hobbyists will still opt for DSLRs or other ILCs. But the majority of buyers aren't serious hobbyists. So, I don't think DSLRs will come to an end but they will shrink down in overall marketshare because the smaller, more portable options are good enough for the average consumer.
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Old Feb 5, 2014, 2:13 PM   #42
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Again, the market share for digital cameras with interchangeable lenses has been growing significantly since they first became available. The sources referenced at the beginning of this topic only looked at the last two years where there was a slight dip from one year to the next, but the outlook is still good despite the selection bias of the original authors.
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Old Feb 5, 2014, 2:42 PM   #43
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The sources referenced at the beginning of this topic only looked at the last two years where there was a slight dip from one year to the next, but the outlook is still good despite the selection bias of the original authors.
The only global source of data available is the CIPA data which shows an 18% drop in ILC shipments from one year to the next. People can choose for themselves whether a 18% is "a slight dip" or not.

We'll have to wait and see if CIPA makes public their report later this year to see what the trend is for 2014 vs. 2013. Until such time we don't know if the 18% drop from 2012 to 2013 was a temporary adjustment or the start of a trend.

Now, what other actual DATA do we have since the CIPA data?
Well, Canon cut their forecast in October 2013 saying DSLR sales were down:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...99N06E20131024

Again, could be just 1 year. Perhaps TCAV you can share actual data illustrating the "outlook is good"?
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Old Feb 5, 2014, 3:43 PM   #44
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The only global source of data available is the CIPA data ...
Agreed.

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... which shows an 18% drop in ILC shipments from one year to the next.
No. What it shows is an 18% drop from 2012 to 2013. What it doesn't show is the 37% increase from 2011 to 2012, the 26% increase from 2010 to 2011, or the 42% increase from 2009 to 2010 (all of which are from CIPA data, btw, which is why I characterize the exclusive use of the 2012 to 2013 numbers as selection bias). In that context, considering the whole story, I'm sure we can agree that a drop of 18% is a slight dip.
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Old Feb 5, 2014, 4:32 PM   #45
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As a matter of fact, CIPA has published data for the entire 2013 year, along with previous years going back to 2003 for shipments of digital cameras with interchangeable lenses. The 2013 shipments is a 15% drop from 2012, but that's on the heels of 28%, 22%, 30%, 2%, 30%, 42%, 39% and 53% increases for each prior year.

(I have no doubt that there were those that predicted the downfall of the dSLR after CIPA published an increase of only 2% for 2009. They were just as wrong as the authors of the articles linked to in the OP.)

Yes, 2013 was lower than 2012, but it was still higher than 2011 and every year before it.
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Old Feb 5, 2014, 4:44 PM   #46
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for those interested, here is a link to the CIPA results that just came out. The report does not differentiate between DSLR and other mirrorless. We only know there was a 15% dropoff in total ILC shipments. They predict a 8.7% increase in 2014 for Japan for ILCs but a drop to other countries of 4.1%

Maybe in the coming days they will differentiate between DSLR and other ILCs

http://www.cipa.jp/documents/e/PRESS...20140203_e.pdf
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Old Feb 5, 2014, 7:35 PM   #47
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Unfortunately, getting global data is a rarity. We get Japan data every year but it would be a mistake to extrapolate that just like it would be a mistake to rely on Amazon figures.


No, they won't be abandoned. I do think they will go back down to a more normal footprint - just like film SLRs did.


Sure, but that's not really the question. The question is how many of said people USE a DSLR vs their cell phone/tablet or point-and-shoot. When you're primarily viewing photos on smart phones the difference for many photos really becomes "not worth the hassle" to most people. DSLRs went through an explosive bubble phase. But a lot of folks have already given it up because it's a pain in the butt to carry around. And, they realized that 90% of the photos were just viewed electronically anyway.

Everything will reduce the abundance of DSLRs. 5 years ago the difference was HUGE - now, smaller options exist that will take the casual photographer's money. Sure, serious hobbyists will still opt for DSLRs or other ILCs. But the majority of buyers aren't serious hobbyists. So, I don't think DSLRs will come to an end but they will shrink down in overall marketshare because the smaller, more portable options are good enough for the average consumer.


I can see what you are saying on all points. It will be interesting to watch over the years for sure.
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Old Feb 5, 2014, 8:27 PM   #48
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Here, the CIPA shows that shipments for interchangeable lens cameras dropped 15% from 2012, SLR ILC shipments dropped 14.7%, and Non-Reflex (Mirrorless) ILC shipments dropped 16.4%.
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Old Feb 6, 2014, 3:22 PM   #49
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Originally Posted by lomitamike View Post
Just my thoughts put in to few words.


.....Later, further down the road there will not be any still cameras for photo enthusiast like us. The video clips captured with the cameras of the future will be so good along with new future smart software that all stills will be taken from the clips......
I can well believe it.

A screenshot from Steve's Fuji XQ1 video test....IMO, more than good enough for Facebook or whatever .
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