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Old Aug 21, 2005, 8:49 AM   #1
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How long do you think before the prices for DSLR's comes down to how regular SLR camera's are priced right now? I personally think it will take about three more years befor DSLR's come out priced like today's SLR cameras.
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Old Aug 21, 2005, 11:10 AM   #2
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It will take awhile for them to get close, but I'd be surprised if they ever match the prices for similar features.

There is a lot more expense in a DSLR. The sensor alone takes up about (if rumors are true) between 1/3 and 1/2 the cost of a DSLR. And a film camer doesn't have that cost.

There is also a lot more electronics in a DSLR, and designing and building those costs more money.

Add on top of that simlar bodies (similar costs) and similar metering and AF systems, and I don't see how they could get to the same price. Well, except if someone starts selling one as a loss-leader for making a profit on the lenses.

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Old Aug 23, 2005, 4:55 PM   #3
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Personally I doubt they're going to fall too much more, even if the manufacturing costs fall significantly. I'd think they camera companies wouldwant to keep them as a "premium" item above the compacts so the consumer will see them as a clear upgrade and pay the extra.
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Old Aug 23, 2005, 5:27 PM   #4
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Well, the are electronics, just like computers. 6 years ago, a computer would go for easily $2000 USD, but now, you can get them for about $299. BIG price difference, i expect that the DSLR prices will come down in about 4-6 years time. I persoanlly expect the Canon 1Ds Mark II to come down in price to abotu $500 in about 3 years.

Just my opinion

-Travis-
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Old Aug 23, 2005, 10:23 PM   #5
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twsen, sure the price on current market cameras will drop eventually.

6 months after the 20D came out the 10D was worth about 1/2 what it was new ($750.) But that was used.

I assumed the question was about new DSLRs.

So, given enough time, you will be able to get a DSLR for the same price as a SLR? That is a given... prices on used equipment will eventually drop to that point. But a new camera?

All of these are new prices from B&H photo.
The Canon Rebel T2 costs $190 new.
The Canon Rebel K2 costs $135 new.
The Canon Elan 7NE costs $340 new.
The Canon Elan 7N costs $300 new.
The Canon EOS 3 costs $875 new.
The Canon EOS 1V costs $1,650 new.
The Canon EOS 1V HS costs $1,970 new.

Is it possible that the 1D MkII could get to $2000? Yes, I would say that it is possible. But I'd be surprised if it were new.

People are saying that the new 5D is the digital equivelent to the EOS 3. If so, I don't see that ever being new at $870. If the 20D is the 7N/7NE of digital then I don't see it being $300 new.

Eric
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Old Aug 24, 2005, 10:42 AM   #6
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tswen wrote:
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Well, the are electronics, just like computers. 6 years ago, a computer would go for easily $2000 USD, but now, you can get them for about $299. BIG price difference, i expect that the DSLR prices will come down in about 4-6 years time. I persoanlly expect the Canon 1Ds Mark II to come down in price to abotu $500 in about 3 years.

Just my opinion

-Travis-
There's a major difference between computer industry and camera industry - competition. Unlike cameras, computers are easily assembled from the various components, so it's easy for a new computer company to start building computers and slash prices as compared to what a large corporation is offering. Heck, the consumer can buy all the components and assemble the computer themselves. DSLRs aren't quite in the same boat - even if component prices come down, third-party companies or the consumer can't build their own Canon EOS DSLR body.

Now if we deal in just photography, digicam prices have gone down somewhat but this is again due to competition - look how many companies make digicams. Not all those companies make DSLRs because, of course, they have to make lenses that go with them - which is a huge cost. So, given the relatively few DSLR manufacturers you can't rely on component price drops or competition to drive down the cost of the final product. If all the companies that make digicams suddenly made equal quality DSLR systems THEN you'd see a price drop.

But for now, I think you're going to continue to see a larger increase of features at a given price point rather than more price reduction - that way the big SLR companies can compete with each other while still retaining a high profit margin.

Just my two cents worth.
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Old Aug 24, 2005, 12:35 PM   #7
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Problem is by the time 1dMK2 costs under $2000, there will be super duper camera out their and you would want it and it will still go for $4000-$5000. Analogy with computers is good but even not a fast computer with enough RAM costs a lot more than $299.

You can get starting dSLR for $700-$800 which is quite good.


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Old Aug 24, 2005, 12:49 PM   #8
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I heard its actually cheaper to make a digital camera than a film camera.

If the past is any indication of the future, I believe digital camera prices (for the same features) will drop 50 percent every 4 years until they reach a rock botttom commodity price.

Of course, new cameras will always emerge with more features, larger sensors, faster response to justify the consumer's need to shell out higher prices.

It's amazing, yet in some ways predictable, how quickly consumers have dropped film cameras for the convenience of digital.

These days you're more likely to talk to a person trading up to theri 2nd or 3rd digital camera than a first time digital buyer.

Many photographers own more than one digital (pocketable versus D-SLR).

My guess is the cost will come down and the image quality and features will improve significantly over the next 10 years.

-- Terry


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Old Aug 24, 2005, 5:03 PM   #9
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Terry, I certainly agree with this statement:
Quote:
My guess is the cost will come down and the image quality and features will improve significantly over the next 10 years.
That is certainly true.

But I would be truly shocked if a DSLR is actually cheaper to make than a film SLR. Is that really what you mean with:
Quote:
I heard its actually cheaper to make a digital camera than a film camera.
?
I would even argue that it is impossible, at least until it isn't economically viable to mass produce them. Until you sell so few film SLRs that people close down the product lines, DLSRs can't be cheaper. They have mostly the same set of parts, plus the DLSR has a lot more to boot. It can't be cheaper in parts, and I'd be shocked if it were cheaper to put to gether (assuming we are comparing assembly line vs. assembly line building techniques.) And a DSLR has a lot higher development costs.

Eric
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