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Old Aug 27, 2007, 10:32 AM   #1
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For the EOS 30D.

I would like to cover most of my needs (fromindoor sportthrough portraits to nature) with a maximum of $700 for the lenses.

Do you guys think thatthe below is reasonnable ?

- Canon EF 50/1.8 (old metal version) for portraits and sports

- Canon EF 70-200/4L USM for nature

- A 1.4x TC for nature

I am betting that there will be full frame sensor Canon cameras for under $1000 within 3 years. That is why I am not going EF-S. Am I wrong ?

Thanks

Phil
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Old Aug 27, 2007, 11:35 AM   #2
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philgib wrote:
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For the EOS 30D.

I would like to cover most of my needs (fromindoor sportthrough portraits to nature) with a maximum of $700 for the lenses.

Do you guys think thatthe below is reasonnable ?

- Canon EF 50/1.8 (old metal version) for portraits and sports

- Canon EF 70-200/4L USM for nature

- A 1.4x TC for nature
Good choices. (BTW, that's three lenses, not two.)

For indoor sports, as has been said here, time and time again, you'll need f/2.0 or better, and an old 50mm lens is a good fast lens for that. And I suspect that the 70-200mm f/4.0 will do well for wildlife, with or without the TC.

philgib wrote:
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I am betting that there will be full frame sensor Canon cameras for under $1000 within 3 years. That is why I am not going EF-S. Am I wrong ?
I congradulate you on your optimism.

Steve-Digicams has a review of the Canon EOS 1Ds, a full frame dSLR, dated 12/11/2002. Used, this camera is still selling for $3,000.New full frame dSLRs still cost over $2,500. You think Canon will release one for less that $1,000 in less than three years. That's optimism.

I don't think Canon, or anyone else for that matter, has any incentive to do what you suggest. Larger image sensors are harder to manufacture than smaller ones, and require larger, heavier, and more expensive bodies. The market for APS-C dSLRs is still strong, and there are more lenses for them than for full frame dSLRs. Most people interested in dSLRs will buy the ones with the features, lenses and accessories that will suit the type of photography they want to do, and a physically larger image sensor actually reduces the possibilities for that.

I don't know how Canon lenses are, but I have heard that lenses designed for film don't do as well on full frame dSLRs, because of the peculiarities of image sensors. Film will react to light it receives from any direction, but an image sensor doesn't react as much to light that it receives at angles other than pretty close to perpendicular. So lenses that were very good for film might not do so well when, and if, they are eventually mounted on your Canon sub-$1,000 full-frame dSLR.
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Old Aug 27, 2007, 2:42 PM   #3
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Thanks for comforting me about the lenses. Regarding the technological progress, have you by any chance heard about Hendy's law, an extension of Moore's law?



I am quite confident in havingmy expensiveOES 30Dcamera being a toy in the hands ofmy kids in5 years.

An interesting factor is that the human eye is said to have a resolution of 500 megapixels. Once we arrive at this limit without interpolation -less than 10 years, according to Moore's law - then what ? Where will the camera progress aim at ?500 megapixelsvideo at 30 img / second ? Amazing burst modes ?

I wish I could be as optimist as Bill Gates was 27 years ago
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Old Aug 27, 2007, 3:11 PM   #4
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philgib wrote:
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I wish I could be as optimist as Bill Gates was 27 years ago
Twenty seven years ago, Dr. Gary Kildall was an optimist too.

See you in three years. :-)
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Old Aug 28, 2007, 7:57 AM   #5
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An opthamologist is an eye surgeon.

An optometrist is an eye diagnostician.

An optician makes glasses.

An optimist can't see straight.
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Old Aug 28, 2007, 6:03 PM   #6
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philgib wrote:
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I am betting that there will be full frame sensor Canon cameras for under $1000 within 3 years. That is why I am not going EF-S. Am I wrong ?

Thanks

Phil
Yes you are wrong.

The chance of that happening is zero. The current cost of FF sensors is more than $1000 to manufacture. Chances of them bringing that down fast enough to get the sensor and camera body in for less than $1000 in 3 years and still make a profit?

The 40D is being launched at $1300. A 1.6 crop sensor costs about 10% of the FF sensor to manufacture.

Maybe 10 years from now there might be a chance (inflation adjusted of course).
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Old Aug 28, 2010, 10:35 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by philgib View Post
I am betting that there will be full frame sensor Canon cameras for under $1000 within 3 years. ...
Anyone can predict the future.

Being right is the tough part.
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Old Aug 28, 2010, 10:59 PM   #8
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I am betting that there will be full frame sensor Canon cameras for under $1000 within 3 years. That is why I am not going EF-S. Am I wrong ?

Thanks

Phil
Phil,

I didn't realize this thread was so old. As you can see...FF DSLR's didn't come down to $ 1000.00 within the 3 years from the time you posted.

But looking at 2013....I dunno.

My view is that by 2013, I wouldn't say FF DSLR cameras will be at around $ 1000.00 .

But I could see them going for $ 1700.00 - $ 2000 in three years..say 2013.

Maybe less.

I say this because this year Sony introduced the A 850 FF camera for a very good price.

Canon responded by lowering the price on their excellent 5D Mk. 11.

The price went to $ 2500 CAD
or less, for the 5D at some camera stores in Canada...on sale. One large camera shop chain that I patronize up here...the cost now (no sale price, regular price) of $ 2649.00 CAD.

The Canon 5 D Mk. 11 was if memory serves me correct, originally, in 2009 selling for over $ 3000.00 + CAD.

Now no one can guarantee that FF cameras will continue to go down in price....but given what's happened this year in the FF arena, I know I think there is a good chance that the price will continue to go down.

I think Sony has cast down the gauntlet for FF price reductions this year...Canon has responded...we all know what competition does to prices.

But no matter...the Canon 30D you have...if you still have it... may be a bit old, only have 8 something MP's...but with the right lens and in the right hands it is a tremendous camera, well capable of taking excellent pictures. I've have a friend who had a 30D...the pix he took with his Canon 70-300 and 400 L F 5.6...blew me away.

The 30D with an excellent lens is still a force to be reckoned with.

Les


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Old Aug 28, 2010, 11:03 PM   #9
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Phil's original post is dated Aug 27, 2007. His three years are up.
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Old Aug 29, 2010, 1:32 AM   #10
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Phil's original post is dated Aug 27, 2007. His three years are up.
I see that. My post is to look at a further 3 years from now....2010...to 2013.
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