I looked at the extra camera that adding an additional $100 would add and offhand I don't think that will add any more cameras to the list (though it does get the Minolta Z3 almost in your price range). I would use the extra $ on memory or a wide angle len. However I do need to remove one from my list. The Minolta Z10 does NOT have a 640x480 at 30 fps movie mode. Was incorrectly on my original list of cameras that did that mode and I failed to remove it from my spreadsheet (only updated the forum thread).
If small size was not a consideration for me, I would own the Canon S1 IS with a wide angle len. My shooting requirements are very similar to yours and unlike most zoom lenses, I find this camera takes excellent pictures. I would also be very interested in the Minolta Z3 if it lives up to its possiblities (proof will be seeing the pictures and movies). Without actually seeing all the cameras movies and pictures, I think that the movie mode MIGHT be best with the Canon S1 IS, Minolta Z3 and Minolta Z2.
For picture quality, the Z2 would drop off my list since it doesn't have an AF light to focus in the low light situations. I only looked at the pictures of cameras that did 37mm or better and the Canon S1 IS (since it does so well in the movie mode to make it worth the fuss of dealing with extra lenses to get the wider angle views) and found that the Canon S1 and possibly the cameras too new to have sample posted in reviews (including the Minolta Z3) as the best choice in my mind. Now if only they could shrink the S1 into an ultra compact camera and I would leep with joy!